Tuesday, December 07, 2004
Position Analysis - Third Base
Third Baseman
Starter: Vinny Castilla
Back-Up: Brendan Harris
In the Minors: Rick Short, Brian Harris, Scott Hodges, Shawn Norris?
VINNY CASTILLA
Bats: Right Age in 2005 : 37/38 Contract: 6.2 million for 2 years (3 million in 2005)
2004 Stats: .271 35 131 51 BB 113 K .535 Slug .332 OBP
Past: After a couple of cups of coffee in the majors with the Braves, Castilla was selected by Colorado with the 40th pick of the expansion draft. Vinny had a couple of middling years before exploding in 1995 with Triple Crown stats of .309 32 90. This began 5 straight years where Castilla hit over .300 with 30+ HR and more than 90+ RBI, including a .319 46 144 year. However, these numbers hid two secrets: 1) Vinny could not take a pitch to save his life, his OBP being only slightly above his batting average (but still good since his average was good); 2) Vinny was a lion at Coors, a lamb elsewhere. So when Vinny appeared to be slipping with a slightly less impressive ’99, Colorado let him go to Tampa Bay for a crazy salary. Injuries and probably a little bit of “what the hell does it matter” destroyed Castilla and he was released mid-season 2001 by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Given a second chance by the Astros, Vinny showed he could hit well in another bandbox. This led to a 2-yr contract for the Braves where he was awful in the first year and average in the second.
Present: The Rockies returned Vinny home with a one-year deal for 2004. Vinny had another “Triply Crown” impressive year in Colorado as if he had never left. But oh those splits. HOME: .321 14 80 .397 OBP .575 SLG AWAY: .218 21 51 .281 OBP .493 SLG. Nothing has changed for Castilla. He’s an hitter with no patience who is made better by the thin air of Coors. Castilla declined a mutual option that would have paid him 2.6 million, most after 2015 though (yes 2015, talk about deferred).
Future:
Best Case: Castilla hits a lot like Tony Batista did last year, hitting about .270 with 30 HR, both years. His OBP is awful, but he gives the Nats good defense and isn’t a hole in the lineup.
Worst Case: Castilla has a horrible first year batting around .220 with only minimal power. Aging, Castilla can’t even field like he used to and the Nats find themselves wanting to pull a Tampa Bay and release Vinny in the second year.
Probable: Other than last year, Castilla has shown very little non-Coors, non-Enron power since 1999. Other than 2003, Castilla has shown very little non-Coors non-Enron batting average since 1999. Castilla has shown very little OBP wherever and whenever he is (much like Shakira). Given his past showings during non contract years, next year could very well be horrendous. I think he’s seen his last sunny-side of .250. I’m guessing .230 with 20 HR, though I'm probably underselling his power. He would then try to pick it up in year 2 but being as old as he is he can only do marginally better say .240 and 25 HR.
BRENDAN HARRIS
Bats: Right Age in 2005 : 24/25 Contract: Minor League
2004 Stats: .222 1 3 3 BB 12 K .271 Slug .222 OBP
Past: A touted Cubs prospect, Brendan moved up to Double A by 2003. While I wouldn’t say he “tore up” the minors, I would say he was moved up not only on a prospect basis, as sometime players are, but because he was hitting too well to keep down.
Present: Because the Cubs were questionable at both 3rd and 2nd at the beginning of the year, Brendan was given a chance at the majors. He hit ok in this very brief stop, but was moved to Triple A to get some seasoning. The Nomar deal sent him to the Expos system. He continued to hit well in Edmonton, and late-season injuries gave Brendan a second shot at the majors. He did not do as well in this longer stint, hitting with an .OBP of .208 and a SLG of .260 in 50 at bats.
Future:
Best Case: Brendan shows doubles power and average in the majors. He hits well enough in limited duty to usurp third base from Castilla, around .280 and 10HRs. Given the full job in 2006, he performs even better and .280+ 20+ HR a year is penciled into the Nats lineup at 3B for the next few years.
Worst Case: Brendan is a AAAA hitter. Unable to really keep up with major league pitching, he flops back and forth between the majors and AAA, a utility player.
Probable: Brendan, will probably start in the majors but won’t get the shots next year unless Castilla really fails. In limited time he should do better, but won’t get the seasoning he probably needs. I’d guess probably around .250 with 5-10 HR, unless the organization starts moving around youngsters all the time. Then he could spend half the year in AAA. 2006 will probably be the year when we see if Brendan can make an impact, as he should get an increase in playing time for the declining Castilla.
RICK SHORT / BRIAN HARRIS / SCOTT HODGES / SHAWN NORRIS
Ages in 2005 : 32 / 30 / 26 / 25 Contract: Minor League Contract
Present:
Rick Short is more of a second baseman who spent 2003 in Japan, after a 2002 Pac Coast player of the year award. Signed by the Royals he was traded to the 'Spos and, like every 2B in the organization, was tried at 3rd, since Vidro occupies 2B. Played well in Triple AAA, with the best bat. Playing right now in Mexico
Brian Harris, is another converted 2B from the Royals. He performed almost as well as Rick Short in Edmonton.
Scott Hodges used to be a touted prospect but has disappointed a bit. After an early season injury kept him from breaking into the majors as a back up for Batista, he never really got back into his flow. He was disappointing in Edmonton last year.
Shawn Norris is the next hot prospect for 3B. A good contact hitter, he performed well in Double A Harrisburg last year.
Probable:
If they need another infielder (Jamey Carroll can play all but first, Brendan Harris can play both 2nd and 3rd) It's possible that one of the AAA guys would get a look (though Labandiera is also there). Short has the best history of hitting, Hodges still has a little cache as a prospect. I think it depends on how totally they give up on Scott. Brian H is going to get lost in the shuffle, probably playing a lot of AAA second. Regardless, playing time for any of the three would be very limited
I imagine that unless they clear out this logjam with trades, releases, or declined signings, Norris will remain in Double A. If he performs well, he will leap over these guys, as the first to be called up.
FREE AGENTS (not that it matters now)
Beltre was the best player available, but looking for way too much money, even for the Dodgers who will eventually overpay to get him back. Early favorite for the Nats, Troy Glaus is a monster power hitter, if he remains healthy. A big if. Later favorite, Corey Koskie is nothing if not consistent. A .270 20HR type of guy, with good OBP numbers. If you wanted consistent and a little less than average, Joe Randa could probably be had real cheap. He’ll give you .280 12 HR for a few more years, but lacks most of Koskie’s little things.
WHAT I WOULD HAVE DONE
As I said in the shortstop analysis, I favored letting Brendan Harris and Macier Izturis have their shots at big league jobs. I did think that it would be best to stagger these shots and thought Brendan should “go first”. I would have signed, as cheaply as possible and for no more than two years, a Joe Randa or maybe a Jose Hernandez, simply to be the back-up to Brendan to start the season (with Barry Larkin at short).
If we had gone the other way and given Macier first crack; I would have gone after Corey Koskie, for third. Koskie, was probably asking in the neighborhood of 20 mill for 4 years, and will probably be got for something just over 16 mill for 4, or 13 mill for 3 if the market remains tight.
Of course this is with the first base plan of getting a Sexson or Delgado. If we had stuck with Johnson, then injuries be damned, I would have given Glaus a shot. He’s a legitimate power hitter, unlike anyone else on the team right now. That dimension is something this team sorely needs.
Starter: Vinny Castilla
Back-Up: Brendan Harris
In the Minors: Rick Short, Brian Harris, Scott Hodges, Shawn Norris?
VINNY CASTILLA
Bats: Right Age in 2005 : 37/38 Contract: 6.2 million for 2 years (3 million in 2005)
2004 Stats: .271 35 131 51 BB 113 K .535 Slug .332 OBP
Past: After a couple of cups of coffee in the majors with the Braves, Castilla was selected by Colorado with the 40th pick of the expansion draft. Vinny had a couple of middling years before exploding in 1995 with Triple Crown stats of .309 32 90. This began 5 straight years where Castilla hit over .300 with 30+ HR and more than 90+ RBI, including a .319 46 144 year. However, these numbers hid two secrets: 1) Vinny could not take a pitch to save his life, his OBP being only slightly above his batting average (but still good since his average was good); 2) Vinny was a lion at Coors, a lamb elsewhere. So when Vinny appeared to be slipping with a slightly less impressive ’99, Colorado let him go to Tampa Bay for a crazy salary. Injuries and probably a little bit of “what the hell does it matter” destroyed Castilla and he was released mid-season 2001 by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Given a second chance by the Astros, Vinny showed he could hit well in another bandbox. This led to a 2-yr contract for the Braves where he was awful in the first year and average in the second.
Present: The Rockies returned Vinny home with a one-year deal for 2004. Vinny had another “Triply Crown” impressive year in Colorado as if he had never left. But oh those splits. HOME: .321 14 80 .397 OBP .575 SLG AWAY: .218 21 51 .281 OBP .493 SLG. Nothing has changed for Castilla. He’s an hitter with no patience who is made better by the thin air of Coors. Castilla declined a mutual option that would have paid him 2.6 million, most after 2015 though (yes 2015, talk about deferred).
Future:
Best Case: Castilla hits a lot like Tony Batista did last year, hitting about .270 with 30 HR, both years. His OBP is awful, but he gives the Nats good defense and isn’t a hole in the lineup.
Worst Case: Castilla has a horrible first year batting around .220 with only minimal power. Aging, Castilla can’t even field like he used to and the Nats find themselves wanting to pull a Tampa Bay and release Vinny in the second year.
Probable: Other than last year, Castilla has shown very little non-Coors, non-Enron power since 1999. Other than 2003, Castilla has shown very little non-Coors non-Enron batting average since 1999. Castilla has shown very little OBP wherever and whenever he is (much like Shakira). Given his past showings during non contract years, next year could very well be horrendous. I think he’s seen his last sunny-side of .250. I’m guessing .230 with 20 HR, though I'm probably underselling his power. He would then try to pick it up in year 2 but being as old as he is he can only do marginally better say .240 and 25 HR.
BRENDAN HARRIS
Bats: Right Age in 2005 : 24/25 Contract: Minor League
2004 Stats: .222 1 3 3 BB 12 K .271 Slug .222 OBP
Past: A touted Cubs prospect, Brendan moved up to Double A by 2003. While I wouldn’t say he “tore up” the minors, I would say he was moved up not only on a prospect basis, as sometime players are, but because he was hitting too well to keep down.
Present: Because the Cubs were questionable at both 3rd and 2nd at the beginning of the year, Brendan was given a chance at the majors. He hit ok in this very brief stop, but was moved to Triple A to get some seasoning. The Nomar deal sent him to the Expos system. He continued to hit well in Edmonton, and late-season injuries gave Brendan a second shot at the majors. He did not do as well in this longer stint, hitting with an .OBP of .208 and a SLG of .260 in 50 at bats.
Future:
Best Case: Brendan shows doubles power and average in the majors. He hits well enough in limited duty to usurp third base from Castilla, around .280 and 10HRs. Given the full job in 2006, he performs even better and .280+ 20+ HR a year is penciled into the Nats lineup at 3B for the next few years.
Worst Case: Brendan is a AAAA hitter. Unable to really keep up with major league pitching, he flops back and forth between the majors and AAA, a utility player.
Probable: Brendan, will probably start in the majors but won’t get the shots next year unless Castilla really fails. In limited time he should do better, but won’t get the seasoning he probably needs. I’d guess probably around .250 with 5-10 HR, unless the organization starts moving around youngsters all the time. Then he could spend half the year in AAA. 2006 will probably be the year when we see if Brendan can make an impact, as he should get an increase in playing time for the declining Castilla.
RICK SHORT / BRIAN HARRIS / SCOTT HODGES / SHAWN NORRIS
Ages in 2005 : 32 / 30 / 26 / 25 Contract: Minor League Contract
Present:
Rick Short is more of a second baseman who spent 2003 in Japan, after a 2002 Pac Coast player of the year award. Signed by the Royals he was traded to the 'Spos and, like every 2B in the organization, was tried at 3rd, since Vidro occupies 2B. Played well in Triple AAA, with the best bat. Playing right now in Mexico
Brian Harris, is another converted 2B from the Royals. He performed almost as well as Rick Short in Edmonton.
Scott Hodges used to be a touted prospect but has disappointed a bit. After an early season injury kept him from breaking into the majors as a back up for Batista, he never really got back into his flow. He was disappointing in Edmonton last year.
Shawn Norris is the next hot prospect for 3B. A good contact hitter, he performed well in Double A Harrisburg last year.
Probable:
If they need another infielder (Jamey Carroll can play all but first, Brendan Harris can play both 2nd and 3rd) It's possible that one of the AAA guys would get a look (though Labandiera is also there). Short has the best history of hitting, Hodges still has a little cache as a prospect. I think it depends on how totally they give up on Scott. Brian H is going to get lost in the shuffle, probably playing a lot of AAA second. Regardless, playing time for any of the three would be very limited
I imagine that unless they clear out this logjam with trades, releases, or declined signings, Norris will remain in Double A. If he performs well, he will leap over these guys, as the first to be called up.
FREE AGENTS (not that it matters now)
Beltre was the best player available, but looking for way too much money, even for the Dodgers who will eventually overpay to get him back. Early favorite for the Nats, Troy Glaus is a monster power hitter, if he remains healthy. A big if. Later favorite, Corey Koskie is nothing if not consistent. A .270 20HR type of guy, with good OBP numbers. If you wanted consistent and a little less than average, Joe Randa could probably be had real cheap. He’ll give you .280 12 HR for a few more years, but lacks most of Koskie’s little things.
WHAT I WOULD HAVE DONE
As I said in the shortstop analysis, I favored letting Brendan Harris and Macier Izturis have their shots at big league jobs. I did think that it would be best to stagger these shots and thought Brendan should “go first”. I would have signed, as cheaply as possible and for no more than two years, a Joe Randa or maybe a Jose Hernandez, simply to be the back-up to Brendan to start the season (with Barry Larkin at short).
If we had gone the other way and given Macier first crack; I would have gone after Corey Koskie, for third. Koskie, was probably asking in the neighborhood of 20 mill for 4 years, and will probably be got for something just over 16 mill for 4, or 13 mill for 3 if the market remains tight.
Of course this is with the first base plan of getting a Sexson or Delgado. If we had stuck with Johnson, then injuries be damned, I would have given Glaus a shot. He’s a legitimate power hitter, unlike anyone else on the team right now. That dimension is something this team sorely needs.
Comments:
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EXPOS MADE EXCELLENT CHOICE SIGNING CASTILLA---
HE WAS TOPS IN THE LEAGUE FOR RBI's
HE WAS IN TOP TEN IN THE LEAGUE FOR DOUBLES
HE HAS EXCELLENT PERSONAL+PROFESSIONAL STANDARDS.
....no brawls and confrontations,on or off the field.
HE CONTRIBUTES HIS TIME + MONEY TO YOUTH PROGRAMS.
HE HAS A ADMIRABLE HISTORY OF ALWAYS BEING WELL LIKED AND RESPECTED BY TEAM MATES,MANAGERS,COACHES,FRONTOFFICE,AND MEDIA.
HE CANT RUN BASES AS FAST AS HE USED TO BUT HIS FIELDING IS STILL EXCELLENT.
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HE WAS TOPS IN THE LEAGUE FOR RBI's
HE WAS IN TOP TEN IN THE LEAGUE FOR DOUBLES
HE HAS EXCELLENT PERSONAL+PROFESSIONAL STANDARDS.
....no brawls and confrontations,on or off the field.
HE CONTRIBUTES HIS TIME + MONEY TO YOUTH PROGRAMS.
HE HAS A ADMIRABLE HISTORY OF ALWAYS BEING WELL LIKED AND RESPECTED BY TEAM MATES,MANAGERS,COACHES,FRONTOFFICE,AND MEDIA.
HE CANT RUN BASES AS FAST AS HE USED TO BUT HIS FIELDING IS STILL EXCELLENT.
# posted by 
: December 17, 2004 at 8:38 PM
: December 17, 2004 at 8:38 PM << Home
