Expos Baseball

Last Roar for the Big Cat

2005-03-30T14:34:00.000-08:00

In the my mind, Andres Galarraga, will always be an Expo. The number of these players dwindle more and more as time goes on. The best former Expos are already associated with other teams. Pedro is a Red Sock, Randy a Mariner, Larry a Rockie, and Moises a Cub. Vidro, if he has any sort of longevity at all, will be the first National. Maybe Vlad will be remembered in the white, blue, and red. Maybe. But Andres, with apologies to Denver, to me Andres belongs to Montreal.

It is a relief that it didn't end the way it could have for Andres and Les Expos. Andres was home grown in the Expos minor leagues, signed as an 18yr old in 1979. He had breakout 2nd year in the majors in 1987, followed up with a more impressive 3rd year, earning him his first All-Star appearence. It seemed that a star's career was blossoming with every unbelievable stab at first base. Something went wrong though. An injury noone knew about? A personal malise? We don't know, but for the next two seasons, the average dipped and questions arose. Was what we saw just a flash in the pan? An injury-plagued horror story of a 1991 season presumably answered that question for the franchise. Andres was shipped off to the Cardinals in the offseason.

Andres suffered a broken wrist at the break of the season in St. Louis and struggled again. Even before the power explosion of the mid to late 90's there was little room for a first baseman hitting under .250 with 10 HRs, regardless of how he shined in the field. Andres went back to the Expos after the season and the team said "thanks, but no thanks." It sure seemed like the right decision at the time. A young Cliff Floyd was slated to take over at 1st soon. Andres had no place in Montreal. Still, I thought it was a harsh way to deal with someone who I immediately identified with the 'Spos. Here it could have ended.

Then came the second chance. A small contract for an expansion team. Nothing more than a chance to play everyday until they found someone better, younger, or both. The thin mountain air revitalized Andres. A .370 average for the Rockies, gave him the batting title, a first for an expansion player and a Venezuelan. Andres was a huge figure in the clubhouse and the Rockies were in the playoffs by their third season. He was a hero in Latin America, a leader in the community, and a favorite of baseball fans everywhere. For the next five seasons he was everything he was supposed to be following the 1988 season. Galarraga headed for greener pastures in 1998, signing with the Braves. He had a great season, proving that it wasn't a change in altitude, but in attitude, that got Andres back on track.

Then came the cancer. It was the middle of 1999 when he was diagnosed. Cancer had taken his father away from him two decades previous. "Lucky" for Andres it was a treatable Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma. The process still took a terrible toll on his body. He gained 30 pounds, felt terrible. Andres was out the entire 1999 season. But remarkably, by the late fall, he was ready to get back to what his life was about. He worked daily. The tumors disappeared. He was ready to play baseball again. His 2000 season was nearly as good as 1998, as his years in Colorado. He hadn't just beaten cancer, he'd knocked it back so far it was as if it was never there and 1999 never existed.

Comeback player of the year wasn't good enough for the Braves, who aimed to get a top notch free agent (they ended up with Rico Brogna). Andres was forced to move on again. This time to the Rangers. The AL didn't suit Andres and he was soon back in the Senior Cirucit, protecting Barry Bonds as he headed toward 73.

Then came the homecoming. It had been over a decade, but it felt to me like he had just been there. Maybe it's because I stopped buying baseball cards around '90. Signed with the Expos for the 2002 season to split time wiith Lee Stevens, an early season trade gave Andres the starting job. It wasn't the same Galarraga as in years past. He was 41 now, a little slow with the bat, a little slow in the legs, but it didn't matter, it felt right. Some guys just belong to teams.

The past two seasons, Andres hung around to see if he could get to 400 HR. He said it was for Venezuela, but you know it was in good part for him, to put that last stamp on his career that seemed on the brink of ending twice. In the end he didn't get it, choosing to bow out in Spring Training this year. Playing at a level he wasn't accustomed to just wasn't fun. With the Expos now residing in DC, there's no chance for that one-day contract, to see him in the old hat one more time. 2002 will have to suffice.

At the age of 43 he had amassed an large amount of impressive stats. 5-time Al-Star, 2 time Gold Glover, 399 HR, 1425 RBI, .288 batting average. Andres' .370 average in 1993 for an expansion franchise remains one of the highest marks in recent years. His 1996 stats of 47 HR and 150 RBIs (most RBI in 30+ years when he accomplished this) are still impressive.

The Last Son of The Olympic (Stadium, that is)

2005-03-08T13:49:00.000-08:00

Surprisingly, a lot of time can pass when you don't have a team to write about anymore. (For those of you somehow only tuned to exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com, my Nationals blogs have moved to nationals.mostavaluablenetwork.com. I'll fix the links...sometime)

I finally buckled to the peer pressure of noone and got myself a Baseball Prospectus membership. While perusing through back material, ran into a gem of a piece speculating on who would be the last ever Expo. Sort of a depressing version of my "would any current National make the hall of fame" blog. Sort of.

Well after listing some other last players (including the last Seattle Pilot, Fred Stanley, who I once dressed up for Halloween. Yes, that's right I dressed up as Fred Stanley. I could explain it to you, but it would take too long.) They toss out their potential last Expos, listing 10. In no particular order, Chad Cordero, Shawn Hill, Macier Izturis, Brendan Harris, Chad Bentz, Livan Hernandez, Juan Rivera, Brad Wilkerson, Nick Johnson, and Vlad Guerrero.

They end up choosing, for a variety of reasons, Vlad. I'm going to disagree for two reasons.

1) I think that back problem will flare up again. Something about the way Vlad plays, all loose swinging and such, makes me worry about his back. Then again he reminds me of Dave Winfield who didn't exactly retire early.

2) He's a complete hacker. Whenever the bat speed goes, he will be a cannon arm novelty. Sure that's years down the road, but I can see a 35 year old Vlad batting .220. For those of you that think he might learn patience, don't bet on it. He's been so good at what he does, it hasn't been much of an issue. In fact he's getting worse at taking a pitch. He's going to crash hard, and I wouldn't bet on it taking until he's 42. (38 maybe)

I could go with Nick Johnson (I love a good walk) but he'll get injured reading this column. I could go with Juan Rivera, but he gave Vlad the nickname "Walky McWalkerson". If Chad Cordero was lefty, he'd be my choice, as lefties can last forever. But he's not. So who do I choose.

I'm going to gamble with Brendan Harris. Why? No good reason. Just a feeling. If he has a good season in in the next couple years, he's got the bat control and defensive versatility that managers love to keep on the bench. He'll be that veteran presence guy who retires at 38. Beating Vlad by about a month or so.

A new record everyday!

2005-01-24T06:17:00.000-08:00

There was a comment in a recent MLB.com Q&A that bothered me. I'll let you read.

Any chance that records held by the Senators will be added to the Nationals' record book? -- Ron C., Largo, Md.

Here's what Tavares said about the records last November: "... In our media guide, we're talking about having a page of records from the old Senators, a page of records from the Expos and a blank page writing our own records in Washington. This is a new team. The record is going forward here. We'll start with that."

The "Expos page" idea is unfortunate but I don't think this is out of line with what other franchises do. You appeal to your fan base as much as possible. Most don't give a damn where the team came from or what they did last year. That was something else that doesn't involve "their team". They want new unis, new logos, and new records. I can't blame the fans. Rooting for a team is a very personal thing. You protect it when people make fun of it. You don't want to share it with bandwagon fans. And you don't want to believe it once belonged to someone else. I imagine it would be like your new spouse keeping pictures of her ex around.

What bothers me is the inclusion of the Senators page. The Senators v.1 are the Twins, the Senators v.2 are the Rangers. Either of those teams should note the records of their franchise in the minimal way expected. This Nationals team has no ties to the Senators other than location. To honor them with a page in the stat-book as well as the Expos, would be giving them equal importance in this franchise's history, which is short-changing the 'Spos to a degree I can't go along with. The existence of the Expos allowed for the existence of the current DC team. The existence of the previous Senator franchises, at best stoked baseball memories in the over 50 set. At worst it showed DC was not a good baseball market. At least give the Expos a greater sense of importance in their own franchise.

Youippi!

2005-01-19T11:17:00.000-08:00

Thank you Jim Caple. Thank you for keeping up with the Expos in some manner. Really he's the only one I've seen on the websites I frequent that did more than a passing "Too bad." article.

For your information, The Nationals are currently one of only 5 teams without a mascot and I assume they'll have one soon. The others are the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Cubs, and the Los Angeles, California, USA, Earth Angels Baseball Club Incorportaed of SouthEastern Anaheim, Ballpark District. (The Heightened Emotion Monkey of Rallying is not an official mascot) .

Cleveland is a thing called "Slider". The Red Sox have the god-awful "Wally the Green Monster" The White Sox is a mess called Southpaw, I can only assume named after the cheap beer he drinks. Take a look for yourself. Ones not there include the Reds "Gapper", Texas' "Rangers Capitan", KC's Sluggerrr (spelling correct - you see it's a LION!) , and San Fran's Lou Seal (I hear he won't come back where he belongs).

Hmmm I think it's time to rate the mascots.

Youippi!

2005-01-19T11:16:00.000-08:00

Can I get 5 hosers for my 4 Yankees?

2005-01-14T14:02:00.000-08:00

While reading up on the (ill-advised) quest for Esteban Loaiza, I read a quote that interested me.

"Nothing against the city of Montreal, but any time you can add a team to the eighth-largest television market and factor in those ratings that that market can produce, it's a plus," Bell said.

I'm not going to tell you that Montreal is a better TV market, or baseball market, or farmer's market than DC (though maybe if there was such a thing as a cheese and beret market). Instead, the quote got me thinking about where Montreal would fit into the US TV market. Obviously there will be future expansion / moves, the question of whether Montreal will be considered again has a lot to do with it's relative size.

Since television market information for Canada is limited, I'll have to extrapolate from population data. Montreal would rank as something like the 16th largest city in the Canada/US Mega-Country, slightly more coffee drinkers than in Seattle, slightly fewer retirees as in Phoenix. In TV Markets - that would put them somewhere around 12-15.

There are no larger TV markets without a team. Of about the same size - Sacramento (19th) wouldn't have a team beacuse of its proximity to San Fran and Oakland. Which by the way I find curious. Sacramento is about 90 miles from Oakland/SF. That's roughly the same distance between NY and Philly, and Philly and Baltimore, and twice the distance from Baltimore to DC. It should get a look, but it won't - because it's still considered SF/Oak Sphere of Influence. Baseball needs a Boxer Rebellion. (Hey High School World History reference shout out! There ain't no rebellion like a Sugar Mama Boxer Rebellion. yeah, yeeahh!) Orlando is 20th, but I don't like their chances either. If we had some space shifting technology from the 30th century that allowed the Devil Ray and Marlins to play in the same stadium at the same time but with only one audience, there still would be only 12 thousand people there. Florida is the Atlanta of sports states. Then you get to Portalnd (24th), which is a good market but probably 70% the size Montreal.

This seems to indicate that Montreal would get another look soon. Ha! I forgot about the exchange rate. One Canadian is only worth 4/5th an American. Montreal is actually even smaller than Portland! Actually, there are two good reasons why I believe this won't happen. First I think the MLB wants to move West. They want to be on the coast of Tupac and Ice Cube, for the simple reason that they don't want to fit any more teams in the East or the Central. They want to pump up the 4 team West. The second reason is that they want to perpetuate the myth that baseball failed in Montreal (rather than expose the reality of MLB killing it).

Where will baseball eventually end up, giving that expansion/movement is inevitable to some degree? Well Portland is a gimme. It has everything MLB wants. Western Time Zone, no conflicts with nearby teams, a probably sweet deal with the city. I don't believe they'll be in Vegas anytime soon. The gambling is an issue, but not nearly as much as the fact that Vegas is a lousy TV market (because of it's peculiar population make-up and a suburbia consisting of tumbleweeds and iguanas). With Vegas out, it becomes a crapshoot. The Norfolk to Raleigh/Durham to Charlotte corridor becomes an option, as well as Nashville, or Salt Lake City. The sizes of these cities brings up a curious option - Vancouver. It would allow MLB to claim that it didn't give up on Canada and would give it another Western team. Though Seattle might have an issue with this choice.

Making a guess into the future: The next team (for sale or movement) will go to Portland. That I'd put money on. The team after that (expansion usually happens in 2s) well.. if it's expansion I'd say Salt Lake City. (If you think the lack of interest will matter to the MLB, think again. Remember that other cities showed more than DC, but MLB waited till they got the deal they wanted from DC.) If it's a new team (or an eastern city movement) I'd guess Charlotte.

Enjoy it while you can

2005-01-10T06:33:00.000-08:00

Pictures will still be in Expos uniforms for a good 2 months now...maybe three.

Larry Broadway, looking fashionable

I imagine new pictures will be taken during Spring Training. Turn, turn, turn.

Hey "Mon"

2005-01-05T21:07:00.000-08:00

Travelling a little further down the rails on the HOF train, I was wondering who will be the last player making it toe Cooperstown with a MON on the plaque? Assuming none of our rookies or youngsters surprise we've got relatively few candidates.

Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez are locks. I'd imagine Pedro will retire after Randy, but it will be close. They should be in around 2011 or so. Anyone of Lee Smith, Andre Dawson, Tim Raines, and Vlad Guerrero (if he keeps up his pace) could make it. Obviously Vlad would be the last. Giving him 8 more years and a year or two for induction...2018? Carl Pavano and Larry Walker have an outside chance, but I wouldn't bet on either.

So all Expos fans - clear your schedule for the second half of the next decade. It'll be your last chance to celebrate Les Expos.

Moving & Jack Morris and the Quotable Stat

2005-01-05T09:48:00.000-08:00

For Nationals news please turn your radio dial to
Natsbaseball.blogspot.com

This is the new home of my Nationals related blogging. Two Solariums, quite a find. All will be moved and nice and ready by the end of this weekend, but posting has already begun. I'm sure this will increase my readership by leaps and bounds as anti-Expo Washington sites will be forced to acknowledge my presence, now.

The original and still the best exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com will still be bringing you Expos news and the occasional random thought. Such as

Jack Morris and the quotable stat
Originally the stat to quote for Jack Morris' HOF case was "Most wins in the 80's" Then people realized most wins in the 80's doesn't mean you have the most wins from '78 to '88 or '81 to '91. It was just an arbitrary 10 year period and when you start looking at such things you get a lot of non Hall of Famers leading the lists. So now the quote is "Won 36 more games than any other pitcher during the time period in which he pitched". That got me thinking. Who exactly did he outduel? The 80's weren't exactly known for it's pitching (or it's hitting, for that matter. It was the decade of the Stolen Base and Slap Hitter) The list...

Jack Morris... 233
Bob Welch... 192
Dave Stieb... 174

Hmm. That's a mighty mediocre list Morris beat out there (to be fair I think Nolan Ryan is 4th or 5th - but he didn't get in because of his win total). Is "Better than non Hall of Famers" now all it takes to get in? I'm pretty sure that Tim Wallach was better than say Mike Pagliarulo and Dean Palmer.

Put Tim Wallach in the hall!

Rock, Chalk, no Hawk - Conspiracy!

2005-01-04T21:27:00.000-08:00

In reverse:
HAWK
Andre Dawson was not voted into the HOF. He's making progress slowly but surely. In percentages from the 2002 vote we've got 45.3% - 50% - 50% - 52.3% at this rate it'll take Andre...about 24 years to make it to Cooperstown. Is he worth a vote? Well he was a good outfielder for about 15 years ('77-'92) but he could never string together great seasons. They came sporadically. He was just too much of a hacker (44 walks is his season high) Initially an above average fielder, he really hobbled around at the end. As outfielders go, I'd give him a nod over Jim Rice, since Hawk's more well rounded, but it's a tough call whether I'd vote him in the hall. Probably not.

CHALK
Sandberg and Boggs were voted in completely surprising noone. Both of them deserved it Boggs was THE contact hitter for about a decade and Ryno was one of the best second baseman ever. I was holding out for a surprise (Gossage) but didn't get one.

ROCK
Tim Raines will be up for enshrinement next year. I'd argue he's a better candidate than Dawson. More good years ('81-'98), almost 3 times the walks, almost 1000 RBI's from a guy who spent most of his career leading off in the National League. Not a great fielder but I remember a solid one. He's probably going to get lost in the shuffle in year 2 because everything he did well, Rickey Henderson was phenomenal at. I hope he gets a serious look.

CONSPIRACY!
The only two on the ballot to get 0 votes? Otis "Expo from 88-90" Nixon and Mark "Expo in 89" Langston. I smell more anti-Expo bias. Lee "Expo in 97" Smith is also probably suffering from this nefarious scheme hatched atop baseball's ivory tower to erase Montreal from existence. Be warned!

Did I miss anything?

2004-12-29T07:09:00.000-08:00

Ok, I'm back from fun in whereever it is that Big Oranges go. There are several stories of importance to go over:

Nats gets stadium deal!
Baseball's compromises are very minor.
1) It'll help pay for insurance on cost overruns. Insurance is a tiny figure (I think it'll cost baseball around 2-3 mill a year) and something baseball could easily sign-off on as it won't figure in the costs for a potential owner
2) They'll let private financing be considered as long as the stadium gets built. What do they care? As long as it doesn't take away from the owners potential profits and thus the sale price of the franchise, they could care less. This isn't really a compromise. (though in the large sense any sort of tax or parking meter scheme would take away from the owner's profitability but baseball and the council seem to have the same short sightedness when it comes to economics)

It's still a bad deal. But the insurance is almost a slap in the head, "why didn't we think of this before", move that everyone should be glad is on the bill.

Eischen signs! So does Schneider!
Eischen seemed ok when back from injury and should be another lefty specialist in the pen. It doesn't hurt having on more lefty in the pen, especially after Steve Kline was signed. I would have liked to see a longer deal on Schneider, 3 years if we could have. He's cheap and unlikely to degrade much in the short term. There's an outside chance he'll bust out though and I'd hate to lose him next year, given we have no cheap viable options on the club right now.

Ohka might not be back!
Ohka is good, but not that good. We could afford to lose him, but I'm afraid it would put Bowden in even more of a frenzy to sign a starter that we may not necessarily need (I mean, we need a starter, but a #1 or #2 type of guy, not just another warm body. We got plenty of those) I hope he does sign, as he'll probably be cheaper and better than an Estes or a Shawn Chacon.

Congrats, DC. Oh wait I just looked at the roster again

2004-12-22T16:42:00.000-08:00

OK. I'm very limited in my access to the intra-type-net this week. So Merry Christmas DC. There's a lot of work to be done. however. Bowden may use the week as an excuse to why the team stinks but only Kline was signed and that was at a price he wouldn't have paid. So really the week didn't cost you anything in terms of the team you'll have. (as for budget overruns if the stadium is late....)

I'll see you on the flip side.

You can't get there from here - Micro Version

2004-12-17T14:16:00.000-08:00

How this got all f*d up, Part II. From the deal agreement until now.

September 28th (or thereabouts)
MLB and representatives of DC including Mayor Williams and Councilman Evans agree conditionally to a plan on moving the Expos to the District. The key points of the plan heavily favor MLB. DC will find funding for a new stadium and the infrastructure necessary. They will also pay to renovate RFK for 3 years of baseball there prior to the stadiums opening. The plan outlines the stadium can only be built on a site in Southeast Washington DC, along the Anacostia River. The plan is initially priced at $435.2 million, part of the breakdown is $302 million for the park design and construction, $65 million for the land, $16.5 million for parking, $13 million for RFK renovations, and $40 million in financing. A cap is placed on spending of $500 million.

The financing of the deal calls for a rent (around $4 million dollars a year at start, then raising to 5.5 million) for the owners and taxes on baseball related sales occuring in stadium (estimated at $11-14 million). The bulk of the financing however comes from a gross reciepts tax on businesses who gross more than $3 million annually with a cap being put on the max amount paid by a company. This will cover $21-24 million a year. The total is roughly what needs to be paid yearly to payoff the bonds issued for the stadium.

The deal allows for the new owner of the franchise to own a team and a stadium at whatever price MLB decides, estimated at between $350 to $400 million. Also it places the stadium distant from the city of Baltimore and Angelos' "sphere of influence" hopefully limiting the costs it would take to pay him off.

While specifics of the negotiation are hard to come by it is certain that the DC Council, who must approve the deal by Dec 31st, was not included in the negotiation. Communication with members on whether they would approve the plan was at best limited and probably non-existant.

September 29th
The deal is officially announced. 7 council members, Cropp, Brazil, Schwartz, Evans, Orange, Ambrose, and Allen, show up at the press conference potentially in support of baseball. However a couple, notably Cropp, note that they have not been able to take a look at the legislation and need to review it. The press is overwhlemingly supportive. Only a few dissenting voices notice how strongly the deal favors MLB and question the cost. Of the Council members not present, Fenty, Patterson, and Catania express opposition to the plan. Mayor Williams speaks of gathering unanimous support.

October 1st
Fenty makes the first mention of alternate plans, suggesting a site close to RFK to save money. The plan is essentially ignored

October 5th
The council gets its first official look at the deal. They'll have roughly a month to review this before it goes to committee. If approved in committee it would be voted on soon after that. The deadline for deal approval is Dec 31st. This is important since 3 pro-deal members have been voted out and will be replaced by three anti-deal members come January 1st.
The first large protest of the deal takes place outside of the council.

Oct 12th
Tony Tavares and Kevin Ulhlich arrive in DC to work on the logistics of the move.
Mayor Williams, almost 2 weeks after the initial announcement, makes his first public appearence with regards to the stadium deal at an inner city church community meeting of 150 people. The tone of the meeting is unfavorable towards the plan. Generally they wonder why funds can go toward the stadium but not more pressing needs. This will become a reoccuring theme. This meeting will be the Mayor's only apparent lobbying effort in the time period from private meetings after the initial announcement on Sept 29th until the 7th of November.

Oct 13th
Williams leaves for a pre-planned ambassadorial trip to Asia. He will return on the 25th

Oct 18th
The idea is floated from the Mayor's office of a 20 million dollar fund available for community betterment.

It is around this time that we discover small business' trepidation of the plan. Small businesses do not like the fact there is a cap on the spending, essentially taxing small businesses at a greater rate than the largest businesses. All businesses are concerned that if there are cost overruns, the gross reciept tax will be raised to cover it, though this is not an impediment to large business support.

Oct 26th
Over 170 people sign up to speak at a public council meeting about the deal on Oct 28th. The general tone of the people signing up is again negative toward the deal. The Mayor is one of the signees.

Oct 27th
DC Chief Financial Officer Natwar Gandhi arrive at a new total for the deal of $530 million. The main changes come from an underestimation of the RFK renovation. Due to this, the cap of $500 million comes into question.

On the same day Mayor Williams raises the fund amount from 20 million to 400 million. The extra monies would be theoretically funded by taxes from the business that are projected to be built in the stadium district.

Oct 28th
The public council meeting is a mess. Over 200 people speak in 16 hours and many are left waiting. The general feel of the meeting is again against the bill. Regardless, city officials are confident. They believe they have 8 votes in the Council now. This 8 is most likely made up of 6 present at the initial press conference plus Mendelson and Chavous. Shwartz now appears to have serious reservations and is consdered a no vote.

Nov 3rd
The legislation for the bill passes both the Committe of Finance and Reform and the Committee on Economic Development; 3-2 in both committees. In favor of it are Evans, Chavous, and Brazil (on both committees), Catania and Patterson vote no in one committe, Graham and Fenty the other. There are a few notable changes to the bill. The community fund is now raised to 450 million and is spelled out as follows: 2 million a year will be placed away until 2008. In 2008 (when the new stadium is scheduled to open) the money placed away will be used to create bonds up to $450 million. Taxes on stadium area business are expected to pay off these bonds. A $45 million pot for libraries will be added to $30 million already in the coffers for a community fund. The business that the gross receipt tax will be applied to are cut from those grossing $3mill up a year to those grossing at least $4million a year. The cap is raised to $550 million.

Nov 5th
Cropp announces her intention to introduce her own plan. It involves using the RFK site. It is expected to cost in the nieghborhood of $400 million, a savings of roughly 20% from the original plan. The savings would be realized in a lowering of the gross reciept tax on businesses. Although she had previously talked about some concerns, this is the first time it has been indicated that Cropp would not support the legislation as originally written. Council members Mendelson, Catania, Patterson, and Schwartz show support for this bill, while Brazil, Ambrose, Evans, and Orange denounce it. Fenty is against them either.

Nov 7th
Williams appears on TV and in chat supporting the legislation

Nov 8th
Williams repeats that he has enough votes to pass the legislation as is. Assuming he counts Cropp as a loss, this would mean he still expects votes from Mendleson and Chavous.
Washington Post publishes survey results which state 69% of Washingtonians are opposed to the use of public funds fro the stadium. More than half are strongly opposed

Nov 9th
Cropp removes the vote from the agenda tabling the vote for 3 weeks. She states now she wishes to use the time to find private finances. It is reported that Grus and Sununu may have approached Cropp with an idea to pay some of the costs for exclusive rights to build the stadium.
The deal now involves more than 70 million in personal entitlements to council members, including $45 million in libraries. Graham had mentioned previously that library funding is very important to him. This especially is seen as an attempt to curry votes.

Nov 15th
The RICO case is thrown out. To be brief, the RICO case stated that Jeffrey Loria had defrauded co-owners in the Expos by purposely not fielding a competative team. This is an important hurdle for MLB to clear to be able to sell the Expos.

Nov 22nd
The team is officially named (by MLB) the Washington Nationals. Name and logos are revealed at a press conference.

Nov 24th
Cropp announces that she will attempt to cap the spending at $630 million. She has not given up on finding private financing. At this point we have four estimates of cost. $440 million from the Mayor, $530 from the DC CFO, $584 from the DC auditor, and a worse case $614 million by the Washington Post.

Nov 30th
The Council approves the legislation for vote at next session with a 6-4 vote with three abstentions (for: Evans, Orange, Ambrose, Allen Brazil, Chavous; against: Fenty, Graham, Catania, Schwartz; abstentions: Cropp, Mendelson, Patterson). The legislation undergoes several more changes. The cap is raised to $630 million.

Importantly, to limit costs the $45 million in funds for the libraries and a $30 communtiy fund are excised from the bill. This appears to lose what support Graham had seemed ready to give after getting the library funds. Several amendments are also passed allowing for examination of private financing and would force a move to another location if the CFO's new estimate of the building costs exceed $100 million more than his original estimate.

Dec 1st
Williams states that he is willing to approach MLB about renegotiating parts of the deal, but only after it is approved by the Council. Baseball has no comment

Dec 2nd
MLB says it will not renegotiate any parts of the deal.

Dec 3rd
Owners approve moving the franchise to Washington by a vote of 29-1. Peter Angelos being the lone desenting vote. A deal has yet to be reached with Angelos and will not by the time of the Dec 14th vote. They agree on parts of the deal which includes a local revenue floor, a floor on sale price of the team, and a split of cable TV monies with the DC team.

The National Team Store opens

Dec 13th
Support for the bill passing is again assumed. Baseball agrees to increase the number of days the city can use the stadium and presents the idea of giving free tickets to the cities youth as a way of sweetening the deal. Amendments are being considered including a lowering of the cap from 100 million to 20 million and another change of the gross reciept taxes.

Dec 14th
The Council passes another revised version of the legislation by a vote of 7-6. For Evans, Orange, Ambrose, Allen Brazil, Chavous, Cropp. Against Fenty, Graham, Catania, Schwartz, Mendelson, Patterson. The revision this time is major, as an amendment is added that 50% of the financing for the stadium must come from private financing.

Dec15th
MLB reacts by saying the legislation as passed by the DC Council is "wholly unacceptble" and suspends operation of franchise until further notice. Uniform unveiling is postponed. While not explicitly stated, it is understood that DC has until the original Dec 31st deadline to approve the original legislation.

The Enemy is MLB

2004-12-15T21:41:00.000-08:00

Understandably, the Washington-based National blogs are united in not only their despair, but in their utter contempt for Linda Cropp, Crop Dusters, Crop Circles, and Linda Blair. Washington journalists have been only slightly less vitriolic in their criticism of the Councilwoman, and to a lesser degree, the Mayor.

I can't blame them. The rug was pulled out from under them. Hopes and dreams were dashed.

But as an outsider who has followed this franchise for a while, it angers me that none of this rage is directed at Major League Baseball. The true enemy is MLB. They are not looking to give the gift of baseball to anyone. They are looking to extrort a region, to ensure the greatest profit for themselves. They try to use their monopolistic status to avoid even the most basic of business responsibilities. Yet people believe this is perfectly ok. That it's just baseball, being baseball and you have to bend over and take it from them. You don't.

If Mayor Williams had just had the sense to say three months ago "MLB is only looking out for themselves. They wanted to make zero concessions to this city and its public to help pay even part of the costs. In the end, I could not in good conscience support such a deal. " the anger woud have been placed where it belongs. Instead he went along with the plan, and MLB followed up by pushing Washington baseball hard trying to seal the deal with good feelings and merchandise. The council seemed to be wary but ready to approve. I can't imagine being in DC and not getting swept up in the excitement.

But the bad guy in this is baseball, pure and simple. Not the Mayor. He made a mistake accepting this bill with little negotiation and with no security it would go through council. Not Linda Cropp. She made mistakes, constantly reacting first then waiting until the last minute to actually decide what she thought was best for the District. Not anyone else involved in this. I't's baseball's fault and baseball should be getting hammered over this.

To that end I'll hand it over to someone a little better at writing than I.
Thank you, Jim Caple.

Micro analysis sometime tomorrow.

You can't get there from here - Macro version

2004-12-15T14:53:00.000-08:00

How this got all f*d up, Part I. From 1999 until the deal was brokered.

1999
Jeffrey Loria, a questionable businessman, buys the Expos and promises to make the team competitive. John Henry buys the Marlins from salary-dumping Wayne Huizenga.

Early November 2001
After a fantastic season and World Series, MLB is inexplicably begins its "contraction is cool" phase. It is generally the consensus that this is done more as a negotiating ploy with the Players Union than out of actual fiscal concern.

MLB has the idea to contract the Twins since Pohlad would sell the team to them with no strings attached, but it faces strong opposition. The Union, which historically has beaten MLB, is wholeheartedly against contraction and the loss of jobs it entails. The public and press denounce the idea. It doesn't help that the teams he talks of contracting are not the team currently losing the most money or the team with the worst economic future. Government holdups still loom. Minnesota courts hold the Twins to playing in the Metrodome in 2002. The federal government threatens the anti-trust exemption and basically laughs at MLB's "showing their books" because all baseball would present to Congress is a meaningless summary of losses. At this point Selig presented the highly dubious numbers of over 500 million in losses for MLB in 2001, and only 6 teams being profitable.

Still jockeying for position however, MLB realizes it's much easier to contract a team if MLB owns it. It can buy the Twins, but it needs another team for balance and most owners have no interest in selling (even though they are supposedly hemoragghing money)

Late Novemeber 2001
John Henry, Marlins owner, has a chance to own the Red Sox. Loria, would rather be in sunny Miami than Montreal, where poor decisions and little spending has kept the team struggling. MLB sees an opportunity to get that team it needs.

MLB works it so Henry gets the Red Sox (for $660 million, $90 mill less than the former ownership could have gotten from another bidder), Loria gets the Marlins for $158 mill, and MLB gets the Expos for $120 mill.

Essentially Henry got his team on the cheap, Loria paid $30 million to get to move ownerships, and MLB got a team for 120 million as opposed to the 250 million originally cited, the lowest price paid for a team in full in years (though above supposed market value).

But given all the opposition, MLB is still forced to table contraction until 2003

August 2002
MLB concedes rather quickly and quietly to the Union and there will be no contraction for the length of the CBA (until 2007). This leaves MLB with two options.
1) Keep the Expos until 2007 and hope that the situation changes so that the view of contraction outside the league will be more favorable
2) Sell the Expos at the most profit, worry about contraction if necessary in 2007.
Because the relative stability of the league, option 2 was more favorable. The quest then became making the Expos as profitable as possible in order to sell them for the highest profit

2003 - September 2004
MLB procedes to gut the Expos. After letting Loria take most of the scouting and internal staffs to Florida, they run the Expos on a shoestring budget. Free Agents walk or are dealt early for prospects. Things get so bad that in 2003, while still quasi in a pennant race, the Expos are not allowed any September call-ups. By dropping operating costs to a minimum, this ensures maximum profit for a potential buyer.

To make the Expos even more potentially profitable, they would like to move the team out of Montreal and into the United States. MLB has contact with several areas interested in MLB, most notably Northern Virginia, Washington DC, Norfolk, Portland, and Las Vegas. MLB favors the DC/NoVA area as it has favorable demographics (a large, wealthy population) that would probably generate the greatest profits. It is also an attractive and powerful metro area. If given the choice MLB would probably take DC propoer, but it is wary about Baltimore Orioles' owner, trial lawyer Peter Angelos who has said on numerous occasions that he considers DC part of his team's "circle of influence" (my choice of words, not his).

MLB continues to entertain offers but only half-heartedly, hoping for a deal which saddles MLB and the potential owners with as little cost as possible. They use the time to test expansion into Latin America with the Expos playing some of their home games in Puerto Rico. The games are popular, but not profitable enough to make this a feasibility.

September 20th or so, 2004
After months of playing DC and NoVa against eachother claiming time and again that a decision is imminent, Virginia blinks first. Governor Warner, a strong baseball supporter, balks at using "moral obligation" bonds for building a baseball stadium. These bonds had only been used in the past for public works projects and the use of them as a key component of the deal is a dealbreaker for the governor. Most agree that the use of these bonds is risky but they bring down the cost of stadium financing considerably. Without it, MLB could probably not get full public financing of the stadium.

Sept 25th or so, 2004
Seeing NoVA as a dead end, MLB brokers a deal with Washington DC. The deal is the sweet-heart one that MLB had been waiting for, guaranteeing minimal cost to MLB and the potential buyer. With this deal the profit on the sale of the Expos should be close to the maximum they can assume they would get.

Next the micro version; From the deal until now.

Someone killed Tom Boswell's Puppy!

2004-12-15T06:27:00.000-08:00

Here is the expected vilification of Linda Cropp and all who oppose getting baseball at all costs.

Let's respond, shall we?

*********************************************************************************************

With one amendment to a stadium-funding bill, she ("Cropp" - ed Note) demolished the most basic pillar on which the District's agreement with baseball was built.

This pillar made of balsa wood was that Washington DC pay for EVERYTHING.

The entire purpose of baseball's long search for a new home for the Expos was so the sport could sell the team.

Not at all. They could have sold the team in Montreal. No team is unsellable, not even close. The whole point of the search was to try to get a team in the DC area, and failing that getting the most money for their "investment" (in the strange economic world of baseball where driving a team into the ground increases it's profitability)

Who is going to buy a team to play in a stadium that isn't funded and may never be? Nobody. Nobody on earth.

Or someone who'd be willing to fit at least some of the bill for a stadium. It would lower the price MLB got for the team.

Now, thanks to Cropp, baseball's entire motive for moving the ex-Expos to Washington -- to sell the team -- has been erased. Any solid deal in any town is now better than what Washington is offering -- which is nothing.

Any solid deal where the municipality again pays for anything. Any deal having private funding involved would be basically the same situation.

Why would baseball come here? We have pulled a bait-and-switch on the sport. We have broken a deal negotiated by Mayor Anthony A. Williams, the city's highest elected official.

A deal obviously not supported by the majority of the Council or the majority of the public. MLB didn't get baited and switched. They believed the kid down the street's Dad was going to buy their used car for $10K before the kid talked to the Dad.

Cropp doesn't want to leave fingerprints. Instead, she wants to leave the impression that she was merely trying to save the District money. Instead, she has now cost it a team and all the benefits of development in Southeast that it might have ignited.

She cost them if and buts and maybes.

Earlier in the day, she contacted baseball about adding a clause to the stadium bill that would have capped the District's possible damages at $19 million a year if the park was not finished on time. She didn't like the answer she got which was basically, "A deal is a deal."

Why Boswell continues to say that DC should stand by a horrible deal made behind ITS back is beyond me. Actually it isn't. The guy loves baseball and wants it back and it clouds his entire thinking on the subject (Re: good moves, Bowden)

Baseball feels no obligation whatsoever to make a good faith effort to negotiate with Cropp's council. It already negotiated for two years with cities all over America that wanted the Expos to come to their town. The universal assumption was that the representatives of those cities -- such as Mayor Williams -- had the authority to speak for their towns and already had the backing and understanding of their city councils.

So if a Mayor had promised that not only they'd build a stadium but would pay MLB 500 million dollars as well, they should stick by the deal because he's the official spokesperson? This makes no sense. If your leader makes a mistake, which this "deal" was, the rest of the government or public has an obligation to correct that mistake, not march along with it.

*********************************************************************************************

There was more but I couldn't keep from getting very angry at this man.

Everything said about this amendment coming too late are true. But isn't it better late than never? Why are you supposed to go along with the lemmings? Why is everyone holding to this deal? Simply following the bad decisions of a CEO is NOT HOW BUSINESS IS DONE. Of course MLB said We are going to stick with this deal BECAUSE IT IS GREAT FOR THEM. Arrgh Arrgh Arrgh. This brings up so much anger.

Expos Baseball Lives! (for a limited time only)

2004-12-14T22:00:00.000-08:00

I'm shocked. Shocked! The DC Council approved a radically different plan. It's like Christmas Come Early for the fiscally responsible.

It's late and I'll go into this more tomorrow, but what are the ramifications of this for baseball in Washington?

1) The Nationals will NOT be in Montreal next year. Give up on that. The Expos (unlike exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com) are dead. They will be in RFK.

2) This is a very awkward position for the MLB to be put in. Despite what Councilman Evans wants you to believe they want to be in DC. Desperately. It has the demographics and population baseball finds most desirious. But now Virginia and DC have stood up to the financial bully and MLB fears that this deal could become the standard if accepted. But where else would it go? Portland? Las Vegas? How would they spin it? "We lied about how happy we were to bring baseball back to Washington. We do just want money. So we went to where there's legalized gambling. " Public image, thanks to the steriods flap, is very important to MLB right now.

And will other foolish municipality leaders be able to say with a straight face "Sure Virginia and DC said paying for MLB to come is a bad investment but we're going to do it anyway. Open your checkbook public!" MLB may never get a deal like this again (though they probably will, time makes people stupid)

For DC specifically

1) It makes Mayor Williams look bad. Over half the council admitted in voting for this, that the Mayor did not do a good job on this deal. It cost the city too much. He looks foolish regardless of how this turns out.

2) Councilwoman Cropp may be vilified tomorrow, but if this makes its way through and the Nats do end up in Washington (which is where I'd place my money right now), she's a god damn hero, seemingly single-handedly saving the District hundreds of millions of dollars. If it fails to go through however...let just say I hope she's got a good 401K plan.

"The Bowden Time Machine" or "Rock Raines the Vote"

2004-12-14T09:35:00.000-08:00

We all know that Castilla and Guzman have been declining for a while now, but Bowden continues to peer into his reverse-crystal ball and finding gems from long, long ago.

Wil Cordero (33 - First Base) : 1 yr 700K
To be fair - this is an ok signing. Everyone talks about how great a leader Cordero was in 2003 (maybe that's the reason the Expos were over .500, not Vlad and Javy) and he comes with the best possible stats for a "leader". A short contract at a minimal price. He has played more than 89 games only twice in the last 7 years, but if he's just occasionally coming off the bench that doesn't matter. Plus, though his power is not impressive, he's a fairly good contact hitter. All in all we could do worse. Speaking of....

Jeffrey Hammonds (34 - OF): minor league contract
I know it's a minor league contract. I know that's nothing, but this a nonsense signing. Hammonds is more injury prone than Cordero both recently, playing 86 games in the last 2 years, and historically, has only 4 seasons with more than 89 games in the last 12. Hammonds hasn't had a "good" year since 2000 (in Colorado mind you). He has slugged under .400 twice in the last 3 years, and has barely broke .333 in OBP. He's getting old fast. Add to this the fact that the Nats have plentiful outfield talent (well sort of "talent" - but definitely more talented and younger than Hammonds). There was no reason for this signing to take place. Probably a personal favor from an old friend (Hammonds was a Red in 1998 and 99)

Rule 5 Minor League moves (I'll just outline the "Major League" level ones)

Picked up Ty Godwin (26, OF): Former highly touted prospect, who chose college over baseball first. Now and injury prone aging prospect. Seems to get worse the longer he stays on a level.

Picked up Tony Blanco (23, 3B): Former hitting prospect who killed rookie league, then took four years to get up to A ball speed. Horrible, though improving plate discipline. Still recovering from a shoulder injury.

Victor Prieto (P, 22) sold to the Red Sox: Eh. He was severely struggling at AA Greensboro last year. (We signed him in Rule 5 then sold him) Young enough to get better but no reason to bet on it.

Today's the vote. I expect it to pass 8-5 or 8-4-1 (Cropp and Patterson, moving from abstentions to yeas). The talks with MLB are embarrassing. Look at the concessions asked for "...granting the District the use of the stadium for more than 12 days, allowing the council the ability to seek private funds to pay for ballpark construction and limiting the compensatory damages the city would have to pay if the stadium is not completed by March 2008."

Can we use the stadium we built?
Can we at least look for people willing to pay in so we don't have to pay as much?
If the stadium is not ready by the 2008 season, can you not fine us so heavily? We are building you a stadium.

That these were not in the original plan should right off the bat tell you how poorly it was negotiated.

How much is that Sosa in the window? (Bark! Bark!)

2004-12-13T05:55:00.000-08:00

The one with the raggedy old milkcarton glove.

Some will tell you that Bowden is nuts. I on the other hand agree with him that "it doesn't hurt to ask" is a great strategy. Bowden reportedly made inquiries into Sosa's availability. The catch being that he'd want the Cubs to pick up more than 10 million of Sosa's contract? Going to happen? No. But it doesn't hurt to ask.

As I noted before, we entered the free agent signing period with about 16 million to spend. If we end up with Castilla, Guzman, Guillen, and say Shawn Chacon, did Bowden do a good job?

No Ohka!? It's all over but the vote and 4th place finish

2004-12-11T15:14:00.000-08:00

I've been pretty bad lately at keeping up with the Washington papers lately. Sorry, I don't live in your stagnant swamp (Lisa Simpson's words, not mine. I like DC. But you should hear what I have to say about New Orleans.)

The Times reports that things look bleak for stadium opponents. No surprise there. This thing is a massive stone rolling down hill and opposition has been too small to hold it back. The swing vote opposition has always been weak. You have your hopes, but in the end MLB is going to completely swindle DC to give up everything for a shiny package. I will admit - it's damn shiny and I'm a little jealous.

Reinsdorf's son could benefit, reports the Times. I think Fenty is a bit hard on him. Come on, do you expect to work with lovable, cuddly businessmen?

Everyone thinks we won't get Perez (here and here) which I've been telling everyone here on exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com for week (yes, week). Bowden thinks he might finagle more money by not offering arbitration to Ohka and Armas (a savings of about 4.5 mill for next year). Perez is good but then that's it in terms of signings and we'll have a rotation of Hernandez, Perez, Patterson, Rauch, and...Day/Everts? One injury and we're screwed and Perez is only marginally better pitcher than either of these two (though marginally better + consistently healthier is a plus I admit. We'd be as likely to be in this same position next year with both guys on the roster)

Vargas would pitch then. None of you people followed the team last year but that's a scary prospect. Ahhh I can't argue too hard against Bowden's thinking here. Though I will if the thinks getting Loaiza is a good deal.

Wells is getting more than I thought. Though mostly in incentives, we couldn't have matched that. This free agent pitching market is insane. In hindsight I would have offered Clement 4 years at 7 per to start, or Wells two at 5 mill per. It looks like these would have been at least condsidered it and in this market - those are real bargains. Of course that's hindsight. Can't blame Bowden for not seeing this explosion. It's caught everyone offgaurd

There's about 6 mill left in the budget, they say. Given the contracts given out/traded for we started free agency with that's about 2.5+3+4.2+6= 15.7 mill. Say 16 million to start out with. That's not too much. Two good players tops. 20 million if you let Ohka and Armas go. If he could somehow find another mill that could get us 3 7 million dollar players... That actually would have been best. But we'll evalaute post all the signings. We're still in the middle of things.

RFK to be filled with Chacon-eheads?

2004-12-10T09:04:00.000-08:00

You know the daughter in Coneheads (not played by Lorraine "The other one" Newman) was in Major League II? It was on TBS this morning after my daily fix of SBTB. That movie is like an uncomfortable visit with former friends. And much like a uncomfortable visit, the topic turns quickly to sports. How 'bout them Nats?!

Heading to the winter meetings Bowden said he's targetting Odalis Perez and Shawn Chacon as pitchers. Odalis will not be signed by the Nats. He will not fall under 6 million per. Why do I say that? We all know about the crazy signings so far (Jaret Wright for 7 mill a year?). These are what other pitchers are asking for or were offered.

Russ Ortiz - 3 years, 9 million per expected
Carl Pavano - 4y, 9-10 mill per offered (expect more)
Tim Hudson - 4y, 12-14 mill per wanted
Eric Milton - 3y, 8 mill per wanted
Derek Lowe - 4y, 12 mill per wanted
David Wells - 5 mill per
Matt Clement - 3 years 6 mill per offered (expect more)

Perez is at least as good as Milton, and I expect him to sign for at least 7 mill. Worse for the Nats, if the Pedro deal falls through for the Mets they are looking at Odalis as a back-up plan. That could drive up the price. Given our pre-set limit of about 4 mill per year, we won't even be close. (by the way Bowden - if you can get Clement for 6+ mill per in this market - grab him now, please)

So that leaves us with the real possibility of signing Chacon. Shawn was miserable as a reliever last year but some think he can make a living as a starter. It's the whole Coors field thing in reverse. To be fair to Bowden let's answer this in three questions:

Do the stats agree with this theory?
Not really. In 2002, as expected he was better away from Coors, but oddly enough he had a better K and BB per nine innings at home. In 2003 as a starter he was actually better at home. Less hits per inning, and still better strikeouts, walks. I can't fathom a reason for this walk and strikeout pattern. So stats say that he's a 5.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6K/9 pitcher. Ok, I guess that could work as a starter. Just not a good one.

Do we have anyone better/cheaper/younger at the position?
Better? No. About the same? Plenty. Patterson, Rauch, Ohka, Armas, Day are all about the same type of pitcher. I'd say Armas and Ohka have a slight edge in performance, Rauch is almost the same, and Day and Patterson are slightly behind. I would say that Armas, Patterson, and Rauch all have more potential.
Cheaper? Chacon will probably be about 2 mill a year. Armas and Ohka are around that. The rest are tip jar cheap.
Younger? They're all about 26/27/28.

Is anyone ready to leave? Is anyone coming up?
Well with the Nats contracts are all a rich tapestry, since almost everyone was on one-year or minor league deals. But no, noone is up for free-agency right now, and performance will dictate who can go anywhere next year. Can't really worry about that right now.

Clint Everts is coming up. Maybe the Nats best prospect.

Should you sign Chacon?
Probably not. There are plenty of alternatives just as good, with more potential, and as cheap or cheaper already on hand. BUT if Bowden was to take a flier on Chacon with a short and cheap contract (say 2 years, 4mill). I could hardly argue. Post-Coors pitchers are always worth a look.

Of JJ Davis, Val Pascucci, and 4 million dollar salaries

2004-12-09T08:47:00.000-08:00

While we all sit here and worry about the big picture (or big "pitcher", if you prefer), Bowden has made a couple moves around the edges. Are they as...*cough*...Interesting as his more prominent moves?

Nats acquire JJ Davis for Antonio Sucre -
Losing Sucre is nothing to worry about. Unproven and very young(20), he could be something someday, but I tend to lean toward the "bird in the hand" thinking. Davis (26) has already proved himself up to the Triple A level. Sucre may never do that. So for that part of the trade I can agree with Bowden. Of course Davis adds another outfield "prospect" to a team already crowded with potential good players but not much to show for it. Too make room for him the next move was...

Nats sell off Val Pascucci -
It's interesting how ok everyone was this deal considering it was essentially a Davis for Pascucci trade. Val is very similar to Davis, in that he was a minor league power standout who struck out too much. But whereas Davis is a swinging fool, Pascucci shows a surprising ability to take a walk. In their last full AAA years Davis had .342 OBP and .554 SLG, while Pascucci had .423 OBP and .577 SLG. The slugging difference could be explained by the leagues (PCL seemed a bit easier on the bats than the International last year), but that's a BIG difference in OBP. The idea is that Davis just hasn't been under the right tutelage, but seeing how outfielders have progressed under this team I'm not filled with hope. In the end it doesn't matter because both of them are 5th outfielders, but I think we're slightly worse off so I'd rate this a "Bowden's Game Boy broke and he got bored" trade.

The scale being
"I don't see real well, is that Jim Bowden that made that trade?",
"Jim was all excited talking about this thing he found called the In-ter-net" (example - dropping Biddle),
"Bowden's Game Boy broke and he got bored",
"Bowden got the gardener to buy him Boone's Farm again" (example - signing Castilla, Guzman),
"Jim must have found that old note from Bud telling the GM to ruin the franchise"

Some potential moves are being discussed but it seems the Nats are hamstrung by only signing players at 4 million a year or less. I got to say that if this is a plan and not just a guideline, it's ridiculous. The goal should be getting good values for a contract not setting an arbitrary contract limit. Wouldn't you rather have a great player at 8 million than 2 average ones at 4? We overpaid for Guzman and Castilla, but do they think because it's under 4 million that it's ok? Frustrating.

Signing Odalis Perez
Not at 4 million a year we won't. Probably not at 6 million even. I guess we should be looking at my newest fav Ron Villone, or a short David Wells contract. Only Milton, Byrd, and El Duque could fall that cheap and they all are bigger risks than I'd like to see the team make.

Trading Nick Johnson for Alexis Rios
Presumably this would be to free up room in the outfield, by moving Wilkerson to first. Of course in the deal we get back another outfielder. Brilliant. The difference being Alexis is not in his late 20's. He's an actual prospect though getting older (24). He showed some pop in Double A, but that's pretty much it. He could develop power, but most likely he won't. He'll be a better hitting Endy Chavez (so we could in fact trade Endy to the Phillies for some pitching which had been rumored before). Is that enough to trade Nick for? Well...I love Nick, and he'll be a better offensive player than Alexis, but a first baseman with no power is a real drag on a team. I wouldn't do it, but if this trade is accompanied by the movement of Endy for something of minor league value, I wouldn't cry in my bouillabaisse.

Radke, Wright. - Part III The "Tomo Ohka Test"

2004-12-08T21:29:00.000-08:00

Update 12/09: What this means to be is only a simple answer to the question "is this pitcher better than our #3 starter?" A +2/+3 would have to decrease production in two categories to reach our Tomo Ohka level, so I'd say they'd clearly be expected to pitch better than our #3 unless somehting strange happens. Reverse this logic for -2/-3. The rest have to be looked at on a case by case basis. For the +1s will, anyone regress to the Ohka? Well, Byrd and Hernandez may pitch less innings so I'd make the case they are no more valuable than Ohka. For the rest I'd say Millwood has a shot at pitching better next year. I might actually make the case he's the third best pitcher left in the pool. For the 0s, will anyone increase to break the Ohka mold? Well Clement and Wells are probably already better pitchers, they just happen to have a strange stat here or there. Lowe should pitch better next year. I can't say the same for Ortiz or Milton. For the -1s, will anybody increase and get to even Ohka level? I can't even say that looking at these four. So there's no reason to sign any of these.

The free agent pitching pool got even smaller yesterday decreasing the Nats chances of signing a good pitcher and increasing the concentration of child urine. Leiter, Lieber, and Woody Williams all were signed. Now do you see what happens when you wait till the end of the day to finish your thought?

Anyway, In the first two posts of this series I simply listed the free agent pitchers available, some of their stats, and gave my off the cuff comments on them. In this one I suggest a test. The TOT or Tomo Ohka Test.

Tomo Ohka is pitcher for the Nationals. In 2002 and 2003 he had fine years (for the Expos, R.I.P.), and I project that if he's healthy he'll be the Expos 3rd starter. The Nats need is for a #1, or possibly good #2 starter, so any pitcher we sign should be at least better than Tomo Ohka. Hence the TOT.

I feel that three things are good determinants of future performance, how many men a pithcer is letting on base, how many HR he's giving up, and how many strikeouts he got. In stat terms, WHIP, HR/9, and K/9. Ohka's stats in 2002/2003 combined give you base values of 1.32 WHIP, 1.03 HR/9, and 5.43 K/9. If a pitcher number for the same stat is outside a range (eyeballed by me) then he gets a +1 or -1 depending (positive is good), inside it he gets a 0. Then I sum up the three stats. The more positive a score the better. (I know this is messy, but I deal with statistics all day, Smart Guy. I'm just looking for a quick and dirty comparison to Tomo Ohka, so back off, Taj Mowry)

Now anyone with a -2 or -3 shouldn't even be in the discussion. There is no reason to sign these guys. So bye bye, Aaron Sele, Ismael Valdez, Omar Daal, and Shawn Estes

TOT numbers for the rest?
+2
Martinez, Pavano, Leiter
+1
Byrd, El Duque, Millwood, Perez, Villone, Williams
0
Clement, Lieber, Lowe, Milton, Ortiz, Wells
-1
Lima, Loaiza, Nomo, Wright

What does this say? Not much more than you'd expect. Martinez and Pavano are the gems of the market. Lima, et al. probably aren't going to pitch better than a #3. The rest could be very good or could be very average.

What would I do if I were Washington? I'd go after Martinez if I could. That name and his stats. He's just too good to pass up at almost any price. Plus he has a track record. He will perfrom. Pavano may perform and that difference is huge when your doling out the big bucks. I'd skip any injury risk as the money just isn't there to waste so no Duque or Byrd. I don't think Milton can cure his HR problem so I'd pass by him too.

I'd try to get a Wells or Villone at a dirt cheap price. Steal them away before the market gets any more crazy. If not then Ortiz for a relatively cheap price. Even if he fails, he would be capable #3 for a while, and could be a very nice #2. The rest (Millwood, Clement, Perez, Lowe) will probably be overpriced for what they can deliver. Look at the market. If Lieber got 7 mill a year these guys aren't getting less than that, but they could very well pitch at the same level as not only him but good ol 2.5 mill Tomo Ohka.

Radke signs, Wright to Sign - PART 2

2004-12-08T10:18:00.000-08:00

Continuing on

Derek Lowe (31/32) 15HR 182.2 IP 1.61 WHIP 1.44 K/BB 5.17 K/9
Pedro Martinez (33) 26HR 217 IP 1.17 WHIP 3.72 K/BB 9.41 K/9
Kevin Millwood (30) 14HR 141 IP 1.46 WHIP 2.23 K/BB 7.98 K/9
Eric Milton (29/20) 43HR 201 IP 1.35 WHIP 1.99 K/BB 7.21 K/9
Hideo Nomo (34/35) 19HR 84 IP 1.75 WHIP 1.26 K/BB 5.79 K/9
Russ Ortiz (30/31) 23HR 204 IP 1.51 WHIP 1.20 K/BB 6.29 K/9
Carl Pavano (28) 16HR 222 IP 1.17 WHIP 2.24 K/BB 5.63 K/9
Odalis Perez (27/28) 26HR 196 IP 1.14 WHIP 2.67 K/BB 5.87 K/9
Aaron Sele (34/35) 16HR 132 IP 1.62 WHIP 0.96 K/BB 3.48 K/9
Ismael Valdez (31/32) 33HR 170 IP 1.48 WHIP 1.29 K/BB 3.55 K/9
Ron Villone (35) 12HR 117 IP 1.42 WHIP 1.28 K/BB 6.62 K/9
David Wells (42) 23HR 195 IP 1.14 WHIP 4.81 K/BB 4.65 K/9
Woody Williams (38/39) 20HR 189 IP 1.32 WHIP 2.15 K/BB 6.22 K/9
Jamey Wright (30) 8HR 78 IP 1.61 WHIP 0.85 K/BB 4.69 K/9

and rating
Martinez - A True #1. Maybe not all he was but still a dominant force and in a new league could be amazing again
Perez - Might be LA helped, but still young and good enough if can cut down on HR
Wells - Cheap nowadays, I'll believe he can't be a consistent winner the first season it happens
Pavano - If he's made a leap, he could be a good acquisition, but stats don't seem to think he made it. Will be well overpriced.
Lowe - Will be better than last year, but must understand it's his loss of control, not the defense behind him, that's really killing him
Ortiz - an intriguing innnings eater. Any uptick in skill in this guy and a team could get a real bargain.
Villone - That's right Ron Villone. I think the guy would be a winner given a chance on a good team
Milton - 43 HR. If you could cut that in half you'd have a good lefty pitcher, but he's always been prone to this
Williams - Age started to get to him, relies on same skills Wells does, but not as good or proven
Millwood - Injury risk, maybe a head case (couldn't take pressure of Philly?). A change of scenery might help.
Nomo - Gets a lot of Ks, but lost if not in LA
Wright - Bad, but young so I guess teachable. And pulling anyone out of Coors would help the mind.
Valdez - Slowly becoming the most hittable starter in the major leagues
Sele - Old, can't strike anyone out, an emergency rotation guy.

In Part 3 - I'll pass them through the "TOT" (Tomo Ohka Test) and give you my opinions on who is signable or not.

Radke signs, Wright to sign - what's left for the Nats?

2004-12-08T06:11:00.000-08:00

Reports say Radke has signed with the Twins and Wright will sign with the Yanks. It was well known that the Nats wanted pitching, and that these were two of their targets. The Nats are most likely looking toward Odalis Perez now. I don't believe that's the worst thing in the world, but I know I'll be shaking my head when/if I hear the contract terms. If Radke got 9 mill a year at his age, and Wright got 7 mill over 3 years for 1 good season, Bowden should pay Perez around 8 mill a year for 4 years.

But before I judge Rowdy Bowden is there something better out there?

Part 1 - A through Loaiza

Paul Byrd (34) 18HR 114.1 IP 1.24 WHIP 4.16 K/BB 6.22 K/9
Matt Clement (30/31) 23HR 181 IP 1.28 WHIP 2.35 K/BB 9.45 K/9
Omar Daal (33) 11HR 93.2 IP 1.75 WHIP 1.71 K/BB 5.09 K/9
Shawn Estes (32) 30HR 202 IP 1.62 WHIP 1.06 K/BB 5.21 K/9
Orlando Hernandez (36) 9 HR 84.2 IP 1.29 WHIP 2.33 K/BB 8.93 K/9
Al Leiter (39) 16 HR 173.2 IP 1.35 WHIP 1.11 K/BB 6.06 K/9
Jon Lieber (34) 20HR 176.2 IP 1.32 WHIP 5.10 K/BB 5.20 K/9
Jose Lima (32) 33HR 170.1 IP 1.24 WHIP 2.33 K/BB 4.91 K/9
Esteban Loaiza (33) 9 HR 42.1 IP 2.06 WHIP 1.21 K/BB 7.23 K/9

How would I ranks these for the Nats

Byrd - A solid pitcher with great control. Should keep you in every game though needs to keep the ball down.
Clement - Has the most promise, as pitchers can keep improving at this age, and best stats. Will be expensive though.
Lieber - Similar to Byrd, though competition with Yanks could raise price and arm has been reconstructed
Leiter - Aging vet can help staff, but stats have been dropping every year
Estes - Coors makes him look worse than he is, but not much worse. Back of the rotation starter
Hernandez - Big injury risk. Probably older than he is. When he is pitching can be quite effective.
Lima - Lima Time! Stats show last year a fluke. Likely to get lit up in 2005.
Loaiza - Year everyone remembers was fluke. Recent pitching more in line with past.
Daal - Done.

Position Analysis - Third Base

2004-12-07T10:14:00.000-08:00

Third Baseman
Starter: Vinny Castilla
Back-Up: Brendan Harris
In the Minors: Rick Short, Brian Harris, Scott Hodges, Shawn Norris?

VINNY CASTILLA
Bats: Right Age in 2005 : 37/38 Contract: 6.2 million for 2 years (3 million in 2005)
2004 Stats: .271 35 131 51 BB 113 K .535 Slug .332 OBP

Past: After a couple of cups of coffee in the majors with the Braves, Castilla was selected by Colorado with the 40th pick of the expansion draft. Vinny had a couple of middling years before exploding in 1995 with Triple Crown stats of .309 32 90. This began 5 straight years where Castilla hit over .300 with 30+ HR and more than 90+ RBI, including a .319 46 144 year. However, these numbers hid two secrets: 1) Vinny could not take a pitch to save his life, his OBP being only slightly above his batting average (but still good since his average was good); 2) Vinny was a lion at Coors, a lamb elsewhere. So when Vinny appeared to be slipping with a slightly less impressive ’99, Colorado let him go to Tampa Bay for a crazy salary. Injuries and probably a little bit of “what the hell does it matter” destroyed Castilla and he was released mid-season 2001 by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Given a second chance by the Astros, Vinny showed he could hit well in another bandbox. This led to a 2-yr contract for the Braves where he was awful in the first year and average in the second.

Present: The Rockies returned Vinny home with a one-year deal for 2004. Vinny had another “Triply Crown” impressive year in Colorado as if he had never left. But oh those splits. HOME: .321 14 80 .397 OBP .575 SLG AWAY: .218 21 51 .281 OBP .493 SLG. Nothing has changed for Castilla. He’s an hitter with no patience who is made better by the thin air of Coors. Castilla declined a mutual option that would have paid him 2.6 million, most after 2015 though (yes 2015, talk about deferred).

Future:
Best Case: Castilla hits a lot like Tony Batista did last year, hitting about .270 with 30 HR, both years. His OBP is awful, but he gives the Nats good defense and isn’t a hole in the lineup.
Worst Case: Castilla has a horrible first year batting around .220 with only minimal power. Aging, Castilla can’t even field like he used to and the Nats find themselves wanting to pull a Tampa Bay and release Vinny in the second year.
Probable: Other than last year, Castilla has shown very little non-Coors, non-Enron power since 1999. Other than 2003, Castilla has shown very little non-Coors non-Enron batting average since 1999. Castilla has shown very little OBP wherever and whenever he is (much like Shakira). Given his past showings during non contract years, next year could very well be horrendous. I think he’s seen his last sunny-side of .250. I’m guessing .230 with 20 HR, though I'm probably underselling his power. He would then try to pick it up in year 2 but being as old as he is he can only do marginally better say .240 and 25 HR.

BRENDAN HARRIS
Bats: Right Age in 2005 : 24/25 Contract: Minor League
2004 Stats: .222 1 3 3 BB 12 K .271 Slug .222 OBP

Past: A touted Cubs prospect, Brendan moved up to Double A by 2003. While I wouldn’t say he “tore up” the minors, I would say he was moved up not only on a prospect basis, as sometime players are, but because he was hitting too well to keep down.

Present: Because the Cubs were questionable at both 3rd and 2nd at the beginning of the year, Brendan was given a chance at the majors. He hit ok in this very brief stop, but was moved to Triple A to get some seasoning. The Nomar deal sent him to the Expos system. He continued to hit well in Edmonton, and late-season injuries gave Brendan a second shot at the majors. He did not do as well in this longer stint, hitting with an .OBP of .208 and a SLG of .260 in 50 at bats.

Future:
Best Case: Brendan shows doubles power and average in the majors. He hits well enough in limited duty to usurp third base from Castilla, around .280 and 10HRs. Given the full job in 2006, he performs even better and .280+ 20+ HR a year is penciled into the Nats lineup at 3B for the next few years.
Worst Case: Brendan is a AAAA hitter. Unable to really keep up with major league pitching, he flops back and forth between the majors and AAA, a utility player.
Probable: Brendan, will probably start in the majors but won’t get the shots next year unless Castilla really fails. In limited time he should do better, but won’t get the seasoning he probably needs. I’d guess probably around .250 with 5-10 HR, unless the organization starts moving around youngsters all the time. Then he could spend half the year in AAA. 2006 will probably be the year when we see if Brendan can make an impact, as he should get an increase in playing time for the declining Castilla.

RICK SHORT / BRIAN HARRIS / SCOTT HODGES / SHAWN NORRIS
Ages in 2005 : 32 / 30 / 26 / 25 Contract: Minor League Contract

Present:
Rick Short is more of a second baseman who spent 2003 in Japan, after a 2002 Pac Coast player of the year award. Signed by the Royals he was traded to the 'Spos and, like every 2B in the organization, was tried at 3rd, since Vidro occupies 2B. Played well in Triple AAA, with the best bat. Playing right now in Mexico

Brian Harris, is another converted 2B from the Royals. He performed almost as well as Rick Short in Edmonton.

Scott Hodges used to be a touted prospect but has disappointed a bit. After an early season injury kept him from breaking into the majors as a back up for Batista, he never really got back into his flow. He was disappointing in Edmonton last year.

Shawn Norris is the next hot prospect for 3B. A good contact hitter, he performed well in Double A Harrisburg last year.

Probable:
If they need another infielder (Jamey Carroll can play all but first, Brendan Harris can play both 2nd and 3rd) It's possible that one of the AAA guys would get a look (though Labandiera is also there). Short has the best history of hitting, Hodges still has a little cache as a prospect. I think it depends on how totally they give up on Scott. Brian H is going to get lost in the shuffle, probably playing a lot of AAA second. Regardless, playing time for any of the three would be very limited

I imagine that unless they clear out this logjam with trades, releases, or declined signings, Norris will remain in Double A. If he performs well, he will leap over these guys, as the first to be called up.

FREE AGENTS (not that it matters now)
Beltre was the best player available, but looking for way too much money, even for the Dodgers who will eventually overpay to get him back. Early favorite for the Nats, Troy Glaus is a monster power hitter, if he remains healthy. A big if. Later favorite, Corey Koskie is nothing if not consistent. A .270 20HR type of guy, with good OBP numbers. If you wanted consistent and a little less than average, Joe Randa could probably be had real cheap. He’ll give you .280 12 HR for a few more years, but lacks most of Koskie’s little things.

WHAT I WOULD HAVE DONE
As I said in the shortstop analysis, I favored letting Brendan Harris and Macier Izturis have their shots at big league jobs. I did think that it would be best to stagger these shots and thought Brendan should “go first”. I would have signed, as cheaply as possible and for no more than two years, a Joe Randa or maybe a Jose Hernandez, simply to be the back-up to Brendan to start the season (with Barry Larkin at short).

If we had gone the other way and given Macier first crack; I would have gone after Corey Koskie, for third. Koskie, was probably asking in the neighborhood of 20 mill for 4 years, and will probably be got for something just over 16 mill for 4, or 13 mill for 3 if the market remains tight.

Of course this is with the first base plan of getting a Sexson or Delgado. If we had stuck with Johnson, then injuries be damned, I would have given Glaus a shot. He’s a legitimate power hitter, unlike anyone else on the team right now. That dimension is something this team sorely needs.

Why Angelos can sue and exciting free preview

2004-12-03T07:16:00.000-08:00

The question came up of why Orioles owner Peter Angelos can sue to block the DC move, and I didn't have a good answer at the time. After some thought - here's what I got.

Angelos' argument is that baseball entered an implied agreement with him when he bought the team that no frachise would be moved within a certain area surrounding Baltimore. (I think if it was written, we would have heard about such thing, I doubt even things such as moving a third team into NYC are explicitly spelled out in writing. ) This isn't a crazy position for Angelos to take. If this were a simple free market case, Angelos would lose and lose quickly. But MLB is a sanctioned monopoly, a limited partnership of sorts where each member invests the money to buy a team with the idea that MLB will run baseball well enough that they will profit. If MLB were to suddenly make a situation unprofitable for one investor inparticular, I think a case could be made that whatever deal was agreed upon has been broken.

Now, will moving a team to DC make the Orioles unprofitable? I sincerely doubt it. Teams existed in both cities at the same time previously. The costs have risen, but not as fast as the expansion in population and revenue. Losing the DC market will dent profits, but enough to put the Orioles in the red? I can hardly believe that. MLB would probably win this case.

Then why is MLB consulting with DC Mayor Williams on how to give up the farm? MLB never wants to go to court. The key is that "sanctioned monopoly" comparison. MLB has an anti-trust exemption that it wants to keep on the board forever. You can bet if Angelos was going to take them to court, he would have a gambit based on threatening that stauts ready. MLB doesn't want to take that chance, so it will settle. I can't see it doing otherwise.

In other news - nice article by Jim Caple here.

And eventually Exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com will change, since, you know, there's no more Expos baseball. Here's a sneak preview of Natsbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com. It will be up and running sometime next week.

Third base analysis this weekend.

Position Analysis - Shortstop

2004-12-02T07:00:00.000-08:00

Shortstop
Starter: Christian Guzman
Back-Up: Jamey Carroll (see 2nd base analysis)
In the Minors: Josh Labandeira/Alejandro Machado

CHRISTIAN GUZMAN
Bats: Switch Age in 2005 : 27 Contract: Singed through 2008 16.8 Million Total - 4.2 Million Total in 2005 (in fact 4.2 mill every year)
2004 Stats: .274 8 46 30 BB 64 K .384 Slug .309 OBP

Past: The free swinging Guzman had a couple of mediocre early seasons before surprising everyone with a fantastic 2001. While he didn't learn any plate discipline, he did show unexpected power, hitting 28 doubles, 14 triples, and 10 HR in 118 games. Being only 23 at the time, it was thought that this was a natural maturation and we were looking at an all-star shortstop for years to come. But neither 2002 or 2003 backed up this view. Both his slight uptick in average and big uptick in power dropped back down to pre 2001 levels and left a slick fielding, though hack-tastic shortstop

Present: 2004 was a contract year for Guzman, and for the Twins it was make or break. Would he show that promise again or just show up? It was the latter. Guzman put in another slightly below average year at the plate. More worrisome was a drop in speed, Guzman had his lowest totals in SBs and triples since his rookie year. Not a favorite in the clubhouse, the Twins decided to cut the cord on Guzman and declined the option on his contract making him a free agent.

Future:
Best Case: Guzman learns a little better bat control raising that average up a bit. His drop in speed is just one-year aberration, and he ends up a .280 hitter with good speed for the entirety of the contract, not a great deal for the money, but an acceptable for a shortstop.
Worst Case: Guzman’s speed falls away with age. His "power" (legged out doubles and triples) drops to nothing. With no plate discipline and no speed to fear, pitchers go straight at him. By the end of the contract we've got a guy barely hanging onto a major league job, batting around .230/.240 with no power or walks.
Probable: Unfortunately, Guzman seems unlikely to learn any plate discipline. He never deviated on the road from his Metrodome turf strategy of "Slap & Run". There’s little reason to believe he will now. I don't think his speed is gone and a more aggressive attitude could bring back the SB and extra-base hits. The actual power from 2001 is not coming back. I know it's his prime years, but "prime years" are just a guess. Some people peak later (Bonds), some earlier (Bob Hamelin). I think we'll get an acceptable year or two out of Guzman (.260-.270 with some doubles and triples), but his bat will slow with age and the last two years he could likely drop under .300 in both OBP and SLG. An potentially horrible situation.

JOSH LABANDEIRA
Bats: Right Age in 2005 : 26 Contract: Minor League Contract
2004 Stats (Harrisburg Double A): .270 9 33 53 BB 92 K .381 Slug .357 OBP

Present: Josh is old for a prospect. He could have moved to Triple A but he did not since Macier Izturis was a better and younger prospect. He was completely outmatched in the majors but his stint was rather short. He'd be better served in Triple A next year, but there is a slight change he could get forced into the majors for depth purposes. Jamey Carroll (in the 2B analysis) will most likely back-up both 2B and SS.

Future: It's too early to tell if Josh could make it in the majors but the outlook isn't all that great. Hopefully he won't be in the majors next year as it could overwhelm him. Maybe after a couple years in Triple A, he'll bounce in and out of the majors for a year or two. Really, we first have to see if he can remain at this level in New Orleans.

ALEJANDRO MACHADO
Bats: Switch Age in 2005 : 23 Contract: Minor League Contract
2004 Stats (Harrisburg): .280 4 26 41 BB 39 K .353 Slug .399 OBP

Present: Machado has bounced around already with 3 teams in the minor leagues. Good enough to warrant a look at when you don't have him but not good enough to hold onto when you do. He's more of a prospect than Labandeira because of his age. He has NO power (even compared to these guys and shortstops in general) but good speed and a good eye. He should start the year wherever Labandeira is not, probably Harrisburg.

Future: He could very well end up in the majors but that could be 3 years off. For now he's a minor-league talent and an iffy prospect. He should get another 1/2 year to a year seasoning in Double A before moving up to Triple A. He's trying to develop power but it probably won't happen. His arm is a little suspect for shortstop so most likely you're looking at a slap hitting second baseman. But stranger things have happened and he's young enough to still be "promising".

FREE AGENTS (not much use now)

Nomar and Edgar Renteria were the class, but both out of our price range, assuming shortstop wasn’t our only upgrade. Jose Valentin could have given the team a lot of pop - but nothing else. Bringing home Orlando Cabrera was also a possibility but he also might have been asking for too much and probably would end up somewhere else. Both Omar Vizquel and Barry Larkin were name shortstops available, but are not long term answers.

(WOULD HAVE BEEN) DECISION

I would have signed Barry Larkin, the second biggest "name" SS behind Nomar available, for a couple of years. You'd get his retirement for publicity, a great clubhouse presence, and not a bad mentor for the young Macier Izturis. He would play pretty much full-time in 2005, then half-time in 2006 when Izzy would get his shot.

Macier Izturis was a nice little prospect hitting .338 3 36 .423 SLG .428 OBP in Triple A. He had shown a good eye throughout the minors and improving power. While he would never become a HR threat a nice double power SS with a good OBP wasn't out of the realm of possibility. He didn't do well in his first major league hacks, but it was hardly enough to tell.

Macier and Brendan Harris are two young prospects who were about ready to get a commitment from the franchise for some serious major league time. To put both in at the same time could have really hampered the offense though as they probably would struggle while getting their feet wet. Since Harris had a little more seasoning and was a little older I would have probably given him first crack at 3rd, while Macier warned the bench or got seasoning in Triple A, though I could have gone with the other way around.

Council Approves Stadium (preliminarily, of course)

2004-12-01T06:01:00.000-08:00

So, as you may have noticed, I tried to watch the DC council meeting yesterday. After 3+ hours of jibber-jabbering though, I couldn't take anymore and went back to sticking bamboo shoots underneath my fingernails and watching "Son-in-Law". I would describe most of those 3 hours as:

- Councilman Fenty introduces an amendment that he knows won't pass
- Councilman Evans speaks against it, usually with the stirring argument that "It would break the deal with MLB". Then he quietly says "Yes, Emporer Selig. I'm doing it. " into his cufflink.
- Councilman Fenty says something like "but we're supposed to fix it if it's a bad deal, and this deal is horrible", except stretch that out for 8 minutes.
- Councilman Orange agrees with Councilman Evans and tries to get the amendment ruled "out of order", and for some reason keeps praising Councilwoman Cropp. I think he "likes her likes her".
- Councilman Graham talks about his unhealthy fixation with libraries
- Councilman Evans calls everyone against the plan a liar in a backhanded way, telling a bunch of half-truths to back it up. The irony is lost on him.
- Councilman Catania starts yelling at something, maybe a fly.
- Councilman Graham tries to ask a librarian out.
- Councilwoman Cropp states she's on both sides of the issue, then literally splits in two. Both Cropp1 and Cropp2 abstain from voting, however.
- Councilman Fenty gets exasperated, and his hand puppet screams "You know, Adam Smith? Wealth of Nations!? Read a book!!"
- Amendment fails.
REPEAT

Eventually they passed a bill that would allow them to consider new sites if costs rise above $630 million BEFORE building starts to take place. Of course pre-building costs can be configured around all they want so I doubt that it will ever hit that total (in fact it may not hit that total, period. But it probably will). Even then it's not the "must be chosen" as reported, it's a "must be found and we'll build there if both parties agree." MLB very likely won't agree to any change.

They tacked on other amendments. One makes them look at private financing. Again, it would have to get MLB approval to be part of the deal and MLB wants as much public funding as possible so they can then sell the team for the greatest profit. Another one cuts some of the community support measures. I'm torn on that. It seems they could, you know, cut costs elsewhere. Perhaps in the $630 million, I don't know. But then again this is just political, pork legislation there to get votes which I dislike.

It could still not pass the second reading, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Watching Paint Dry - DC Council Updates

2004-11-30T09:51:00.000-08:00

Is there a channel for watching paint dry? I know they do fishes in aquarium. Because it's got to be better than watching the DC Council talk .

I'll keep you up-to-date. Right now Rep Graham (a swing voter) won't support Cropp's amendment (which is not a cap - but a warning bell of sorts) because he (rightfully) believes that if you give them a "cap" of $630 million, they'll take it.

Catania is a testy little bastard, ain't he?

Cropp is removing RFK site from the amendment for various reasonable concerns (why not build elsewhere?

Evans is voting for it because - hey other stadiums cost alot, and the actual stadium cost is low, it's the infrastructrue that the rest of the money. Yes. That's his reasoning. He's jumping off the bridge becuase Johnny jumped off the bridge and it isn't actually the jump that hurts you, it's the rocks at the bottom.

Cropp with a nice line basically allowing the end to debate by saying "I just asked members not to end debate but if they want to I can't stop 'em"

Cropp puts in a amendment so businesses won't have to cover overrun

Councilwoman Patterson wants to strip to community part from the issue because she thinks it's just there for votes. Smart woman.

Graham makes a very weird point. He's saying that "we all know it's a bad deal and we're only going for it because we can make a positive out of it, for example getting libraries built. Don't take it out." Ok but then why vote for it in the first place?

We got 1) people who will only vote for this deal if they get something but think it's a bad deal 2) people who won't vote for this amendment because it raises the costs even more 3) people who won't vote for the deal but think this is the only good thing in it.

Two amendments have passed so far. This is the Third. The first is "We'll maybe look at private financing" The second is "We'll maybe look at other locations if it gets way over budget". Strong words. Watch out MLB!!

Fenty brings up the point that MLB is not going to be so kind to renegotiate the deal to pay for community stuff.

Orange, who appears to be a complete tool for the mayor, is saying the real debate should be what we're going to do with all the money we're going to bring in.

God this is dull. When will a crowd throw a beer on someone so there can be a fight. I'll be back at the end for a recap.

Could Gary Bennett be Bowden's best move?

2004-11-30T06:55:00.000-08:00

No. Sorry. I guess I could have said that in the title.

This weak-hitting, non-name, catcher is going to be Schneider's back-up next year (assuming he gets signed). If you must know: .224/3/20 .297 OBP .329 SLG

He does hit lefties better than righties (but not all that much better as you can imagine) which would be when he gets his hacks. My problem is that the 750K contract is a raise from last year(600K). Look at those stats. Does that deserve a raise? MLB does note that "In 2003, Bennett established career highs with 96 games and 42 RBIs for the Padres." They fail to mention that it's because Ramon Hernandez floated on and off the injured list like a beautiful butterfly. I feel like the Nationals are a sitcom where the owner walks into the stadium to find that Bowden has signed a golden retriever after watching Air Bud: Seventh Inning Fetch. The owner shakes his head and says "That's our Bowden."

To be fair, he is supposed to be a good defensive catcher. Whatever.

In my catcher analysis, I recommended Doug Mirabelli, Todd Pratt, or John Flaherty. Mirabelli signed (for about 1.5 mill a year), but the other two were still available and could have been had for under a million and would have provided more bang for the buck than Bennett.

Sick! and not just of poor fiscal responsibility

2004-11-29T05:53:00.000-08:00

More news noone wants to hear (not even me): Cropp is looking to put a cap on the spending for the stadium.

Does it make sense? Eh, not really. You are either fiscally responsible or you're not. This plan is essentially saying, "You want to spend 600 million? That's great. Here's the checkbook. You want to spend 625 million?! That's just crazy?! You think we're some sort of idiots just throwing money away?! Get out of here! Out! Out! (picks up stuffed cat) Oh, Mr. Fluffy, they just don't understand. Noone understands me but you." It's the worst of both worlds. Agreeing to a plan that could cost the city $600+ million does not endear oneself to the sensible among us, and it could only serve to delay the vote further causing undue stress and aggravation to Washington baseball fans, blogs, and Spendy McBendOverforBaseball, otherwise known as Mayor Williams. Ok, it's not 100% bad.

A post-Thanksgiving sickness has delayed all that which is promised but I'm on an upswing so I hope to complete most of it by the end of the week.

Free Agent Casserole

2004-11-23T06:33:00.000-08:00

Things to look foward to when I'm back from vacation
1) Shortstop and Third Base analysis including the new feature "What I would have done"
2) A new look website representing the Nationals
3) A new web address
4) Candy for all!

I'll be going home and with questionable internet access, posting will probably not happen. Sorry my loyal reader(s). I'll use the break to redesign my web presence now that Bud Selig is doing a little jig on the Expos grave. Hopefully Jim Bowden won't trade away Ryan Church, Brendan Harris, and Terrmell Sledge for a sack of magic beans by then.

Washington Nationals at MLB.com

2004-11-22T06:31:00.000-08:00

The logo and hats are up!

http://shop.mlb.com/shop/index.jsp?categoryId=1895815

A kook of our own

2004-11-21T20:18:00.000-08:00

Quick review of the weekend trade that happened While I was Out (I also think Bowden redecorated my rumpus room. All these luxiurious fabrics...I love it!) Jose Guillen for Juan Rivera and Macier Izturis.

There was really no reason to have Izturis around after Guzman was signed. Unfortunate but true. Macier had a year, tops, left in AAA and then what? Three years of back-up duty? Including him in the trade doesn't bother me.

Rivera had a very promising 2004, but Jose Guillen has the stats you were hoping Rivera would have next year.

There are a couple of q's I still have but I'll address them tomorrow.

Post for weekend and FAQ

2004-11-18T13:07:00.000-08:00

I'll be gone for the weekend, so for your exciting Expos Franchise news turn to:

http://thenats.blogspot.com

why them? Because they're a fun read. (also maybe a little because they took the time to see that despite the Expos name on the blog title, I'm still posting away, talking about the team next year and they linked me) So go visit them.

Now a quick FAQ

Are you anti-Washington baseball?

No, a bit disappointed for sure. The idea of baseball in Franco-Canada is cool. They could have had modified beret hats and a Swingin' Frenchman logo featuring a mime swinging a loaf of bread. Gold! But anyway, I'm only anti-public stadium funding.

But you seem so angry at times?

It's frustrating listening to people put up weak arguments (or completely bad comparisons, like say Tom Boswell comparing bringing baseball to DC to the impact of the Cubs or Red Sox. It's like saying we should start a car company because look how many people love Volkswagons) in favor of public funding. I just want one person to say "I don't care if it's a bad deal for DC. I want baseball here. Baseball is important to me. If it costs the city tons of money it doesn't bother me, because I'll gain a lot from having a team here and I won't be cognizant of where the money was being lost from anyway", because that's so much closer to the truth. Well maybe the person wouldn't use the word "cognizant".

Could the stadium make the Anacostia region better? Sure. Will it make the city better? For sports fans, yes. For everyone else, probably not. Will the city and the public in the city be paying for it for years? Yes. Either through taxes near the stadium (which is money not spent elsewhere), prices raised by businesses who are taxed, or by cost overrun moneys that would come from the "old pot" of money. The gamble is the money put in by Virginians and Marylanders coming to DC for baseball and the whatever goes up around baseball will be more than the city has to pay out. It's a better gamble here than in most places, but it's still not a good one.

Plus MLB destroyed baseball in Montreal and noone blinked. It didn't die in Montreal, it was killed. I believe almost any city can be a good sports city if the team is competetive (except maybe Atlanta), and baseball denied Montreal the chance to be competative on purpose. So I'm mad about that. But that's MLB's fault, not Washington's (except for being so damn tempting down there with all those people and politicians and the rich ones that live in Virginia).

Will there be a name change in the blog?

Yeah. I decided that since I have no real link to Montreal, I'm following the franchise. When the name becomes official, this blog will change it's name (and it's link too). I'll also update the format. I'll make sure to link it from this site to get the thousands of stragglers over to the right site.

Will you attend any games?

Sure. This now becomes the geographically closest team to me. I should go there at least once next year.

Will you buy me a Diet Coke?

No. Dippin' Dots, yes.

Position Analysis - Second Base

2004-11-18T06:16:00.000-08:00

Second Baseman
Starter: Jose Vidro
Back-Up: Jamey Carroll
In the Minors: Henry Mateo / Brendan Harris (will talk about in 3B analysis)

JOSE VIDRO
Bats: Switch Age in 2005 : 30/31 Contract: Singed through 2008 - 7 Mill in 2005 (woo hoo! I actually get to tell you what someone will make in 2005!)
2004 Stats: .294 14 60 49 BB 43 K .454 Slug .367 OBP

Past: Jose had a couple of middling years with the Expos before breaking out in a big way in 2000. However you want to view it (.330 24 97 or .379 OBP/ .540 SLG) it was a phenomenal year for a 26 year old second baseman. In 2001 his numbers dipped slightly after a couple injuries (including a beaning in the head from Roy Oswalt). His numbers were pretty consistent since then, at a step below his 2000 season, though his K/BB rate improved every year.

Present: Vidro’s knee ended his season in late August, his first significant missed time since 2001. He was having a typical Vidro season until that point projecting in the neighborhood of 20HR and 80RBI, though I should add his SLG has dropped for the second straight year. He’s expected to be fully recovered for next year. Amazingly, he signed a contract extension. Although slightly over market value – you have to admire his loyalty to a team which had shown no interest in winning for most of his career.

Future:
Best Case: With his improving eye and the power increase that can come with age, Vidro remains a top, if not the top, MLB 2B for several years, 25+ HR and 90+RBI every year.
Worst Case: Injuries begin to pile up and combined with age it takes its toll on the middle infielder. Vidro’s stats decline each year until at the end of his contract he’s below league average.
Probable: With a better outlook for the team Vidro should be revitalized a bit. I can see a big year for him in 2005, but that might be it. I think .290 15 should be expected over the contract length, slightly under contract value, but in my mind worth it for “the Franchise”

JAMEY CARROLL
Bats: Right Age in 2005 : 31 Contract: 2004 1yr $310,000
2004 Stats: .289 0 16 32 BB 21 K .372 Slug .378 OBP

Past: Didn’t really beat down the doors to the majors. His minor league numbers were passable but more in line with a career minor leaguer or cup of coffee guy. Good average but nothing else to speak of. However, when given a full-time back-up role in 2003, he was not overwhelmed. Since his role was not going to expand, there was no real reason to send him back to the minors after that. Seems to be a fan favorite as well.

Present: 2004 was actually a really good year for Jamey, the trade of Orlando Cabrera and injuries to Vidro and Alex Gonzalez gave him a lot of playing time. He performed better than expected; the key being a much better eye than he had shown previously. He’s not going to light the world on fire but there’s no longer a feeling that the club is waiting for something better to come along to fill the bench.

Future:
Best Case: Carroll continues to improve his selectivity and becomes a very useful pinch hitter / utility infielder. That guy who can move the runner over, always get the bunt down, and hustles on every play. An Eckstein without the baggage of having to start all the time.
Worst Case: This year was a flash in the pan. Jamey collapses in a more limited back-up role with fewer expected at-bats and lasts only a year or two more as a back-up.
Probable: If Jamey were 4 years younger I might lean toward the best case, but he’s not. He’ll never develop any power and with the recent signings his play will be limited. Of course that in itself is a blessing. He should be a just happy to be here guy for 2-3 years. If his production is stable he could stretch that out another 2-3 years. If it dips he could be done. I expect 4 more years out of his career so...something in the middle.

HENRY MATEO
Bats: Right Age in 2005 : 28 Contract: Minor League Contract
2004 Stats: .273 0 0 1 BB 9 K .318 Slug .289 OBP

Present: In limited at-bats has been a little outclassed in the majors, striking out too often, getting on base not often enough, and not popping the ball. He is very reluctant to take a pitch. This hurts him a lot in the majors where the pitchers are much better than Triple A. His minor league stats don’t give any reason to expect things from him in the majors.

Probable: He may end up like Jamey Carroll, learning on the job to the point where he’s a useful back-up. However with a player like Carroll on your team, and players like him already plentiful and cheap, there’s no reason to keep Mateo in the majors. He’ll catch on somewhere for a year or two, but he’s been given his two-year audition, and he wasn’t up to snuff.

FREE AGENTS
Other than Jeff Kent there is no one here to get excited about and even he’s iffy given his age. That explains why everyone is clamoring over “Vidro-lite” Placido Polanco. Polanco is young enough to blossom and right now is a nice little player. He’ll end up making some good money. Bret Boone is also out there and will get picked up by some team to start. Whether that’s a good idea depends on the contract. The rest is a motley crue

DECISION
Easiest one to make. Stick with Vidro. With pickings this slim it’s not even a contest. Vidro is slightly overpaid, but in my mind should be the most identifiable player for this franchise, so it’s worth it. Unless someone offers the moon for him, keep Vidro on the team.

Carroll is fine enough to back-up, though given the recent signings his time could be given to Harris or Izturis. If they decide to cut him, I wouldn’t be upset. I’d keep him around at least another year though, even if you are giving the youngsters more of the at bats. Things happen.
Mateo should be dropped.

It's unanimous - everyone hates Bowden

2004-11-17T08:42:00.000-08:00

I can't find a single article / blog that thinks these signings are a good idea. And I can't say I disagree with them. I'll have my own more detailed comments in a week or so but for now, enjoy MetaBlog Analysis!

MetaBlog Consensus
Overall:
Neither of these are horrible deals in a fiscal sense, though they are both probably overmarket value. At best one of these two players will pan out to be an acceptable player, at worst this could create two holes in the lineup. If Castilla pans out the Expos will get some pop in the lineup for minimal expense on a short contract. If Guzman pans out the Expos will get an exceptional-fielding league average shortstop in his best years. Bowden is not off to a good start and his other goals (right fielder? holding onto Endy Chavez?) are also cause for concern for fans of this franchise.

I would add:
Neither Castilla or Guzman add any sizzle to the steak they want to sell in Washington. Unless he goes out and pulls a fast one, grabbing Pedro, or using one of these guys in a trade, I'm not sure these deals helped the team in anyway other than fielding percentage.

Guzman and Castilla? I don't think I could be more disappointed

2004-11-16T20:08:00.000-08:00

"Guzman and Castilla will be above-average defensively on the left side of the infield and that's important. These two guys have been to the postseason and that's important, especially for this franchise that has a lot of players that haven't been to the postseason."

"Cristian is only 26 years old. He has been on a division winner the last three years. He has tremendous range. It doesn't show up in statistics, but baseball people know what it means to win baseball games."

"This is a guy that has driven in runs. He helped Atlanta win. He has been on a winning team before. He is a good defensive player. You need veteran players that could lead other players. Vinny Castilla has done that before in his career. He will help us, which is a very important aspect of this signing. He can help develop young players."

Who said these thing? A deranged lunatic? Well, come on toots, his name ain't the Prince; besides could a lunatic run a team like this?

Obviously so.

Jim Bowden is doing what here? I'll go over this more when I get to their position analysis next week but here's a quick response

Castilla last had a better than average year in a non-Coors non-Enron field in....well never in fact. He's 37 years old. His away OBP was .281. That second year on that contract is going to be a hell of a drag...

Guzman is young and but has in the last three years - hit for neither average or power. That's not a good combination. He's also a noticably lesser hitter away from turf where he can use his speed slapping hits and stretching doubles into triples.

Maybe I can find something nice to say next week, but right now Bowden has created a team that will never have anyone on base, and could very well be less potent then last years anemic offense. Ugh.

added:

I'll try to be positive.

Good things about Vinny Castilla :

He could very well be slightly better than Tony Batista next year.

We didn't sign him for three years.

He wears cool shades

Christian Guzman:

He's entering his best years

He hits better on turf and we do play three games at Toronto next year.

He's got that cool little goatee

Position Analysis - First Base

2004-11-16T19:58:00.000-08:00

First Baseman
Starter: Nick Johnson/Brad Wilkerson
Back-Up: The other
Minors: Larry Broadway

NICK JOHNSON
Bats: Left Age in 2005: 26 Contract: 2004 1.25 Million One-Year
2004 Stats: .251 7 33 40 BB 58 K .398 SLG .359 OBP

Past: Nick tore up the minors and was the heir apparent Yankees first baseman of the future. The only question was weather he'd develop the major league power expected from a first baseman. The Yankees didn't bother to find out. Signing Jason Giambi, Nick's services no longer needed, and a couple years later he was traded to the Expos in the Javier Vasquez trade.

Present: In his first year as an Expos, Nick kept everything on the DL, and I don't mean "down low". Nick had had a couple of injuries with the Yanks. Now, a bad back hurt Nick in the beginning of the year and a pitch to the face took him out for the rest. Subsequently, his stats were completely subpar, especially considering his position.

Future:
Best Case: 1) Nick gets and stays healthy. There's no doubt about it - this kid can hit. He's got a great eye and a quick bat. If he can be healthy for an entire year he will produce. 2) He develops some pop over the next few years. Given these two things Nick could be a second-tier near All-Star type player, maybe better.
Worst Case: The injuries get the better of Nick. Never able to get past it - he ends up a part time player, a good part-timer, but a part-timer nonetheless.
Probable: We always hope injury prone guys will get over it, but they never seem to. The first time you get one - it just puts strains on other parts of your body - makes other injuries more possible. He'll probably be a 110/120 games a year player, always on the bench for a few weeks. Given that he won't quite develop power and will be a productive player, though underachieving for a first baseman.

BRAD WILKERSON
Bats: Left Age in 2005: 27/2 Contract: Free Agent
2004 Stats: .255 32 67 106 BB 152 K .498 SLG .374 OBP

Past: Like Nick, Brad tore up the minors, though with a little more expected power a little less expected average. Unlike Nick, Brad found himself on a team that needed him. His first few years were rather successful, though it was the general consensus that he could be an great player, and he was only playing at a good level

Present: Brad stepped it up a notch this past year. He added to his power and improved his BB/K ratio. He proved he could hit left-handed pitchers. He was more than a pleasant surprise. With Vidro down, he was the Expos best offensive player. A fairly gifted, though not superior, athelete, the first baseman played left field for the first half of the year. After Nick went down with an injury he played first base.

Future:
Best Case: Brad gains a bit better eye to go along with the gains that he made. With the natural progression in power Brad becomes a premier offensive player in the league. A .300 40 HR type of guy who is the backbone of this franchise
Worst Case: Brad's hitting is a bit of a fluke. His progression against lefties and patience at the plate kind of level out and he settles into a .250 25+HR player. A nice supplementary player
Probable: I don't see any reason to believe Brad will "Level off". His slugging versus lefties has always been high. I can see the walks and strikeouts to stabalizing as he is a free swinger, but that should only effect his average a bit. I see him scraping the top players in the league, batting around .270/.280 with 35-40 HR for several years.

LARRY BROADWAY
Bats: Left Age in 2005: 24 Contract: Minor League Level
2004 (Minor League) Stats: .271 22 71 68 BB 102 K .452 SLG

Present: Larry started and finished the year in Double A Harrisburg (Go Senators!). While some were disappointed Larry did not get moved up to Triple A, Triple A is really a now a stopping point for people going to the majors (which Larry wasn't with Nick and Brad in the way) or players moved from AA up that didn't cut it the first time.

Future: All signs point to a productive hitter - though not a star. (I don't guess on minor leaguers though)

FREE AGENTS:

The Expos are looking for more than a nice bat, they are looking for power and first base is a place to get it. Carlos Delgado is available and a familiar name for the fan, as is Richie Sexson, though both have their question marks. The best of the rest? Tino Martinez, David Segui, Brad Fullmer, and Julio Franco all could be good starters for a team with an awful first baseman, but this does not describe Montreal. They'll probably be too expensive and/or unwilling to be back-ups. An interesting back-up choice? Andres Galarraga. The Expos get a right-handed bat, that has a chance of having some pop (hit well enough in SF in 2003 to justify a back-up slot). More than that they bring in a guy people generally like and with lots of history to the franchise and a 400 HR chase that would add some early season interest.

DECISION:
I came into this thinking I would be all for Nick Johnson. One of this teams faults last year was the inability to take pitches. I really hate that. Nick is better at that than others, maybe best on the team. He would also project to be a pretty good hitter. Brad is better but since Brad is not a liability (and is in fact pretty good) in the outfield, playing Nick at first would not take away from his chances (nor is the outfield filled with people who must start).

However the Expos NEED power. If they drop Batista -they'll have no returning non-Wilkerson players with more than 15 HRs in 2004, and probably noone that you would think could consistently hit more than 25. Where do you get power? Well you can get it easiest at first base. (though third base is an option). I don't think Nick will ever get that type of power you want from a first baseman, so, as much as it hurts me to say it, I say trade him. He should have enough value to get back a good pitcher. Then agressively go after Delgado or Sexson. (there is another option - but we'll discuss that when we get to third base)

As long as you can keep Wilkerson in the outfield - you should - because 1st base is easy to fill with good hitters.

Outside Chance #344 goes out the window

2004-11-16T08:38:00.000-08:00

The Courts threw out the RICO case. Basically the case stated that Loria committed fraud by purposely devaluing the Expos. Or in layman's terms, Loria made the Expos really bad so MLB could buy it cheap. This may seem apparent but I don't believe the Expos got really bad until MLB had it and forced it to work on a aglet budget. I'd like to look at the ruling - maybe I can find it somewhere.

The vote still hasn't taken place (scheduling conflicts), but the council agreed that they didn't want to renegotiate with MLB, even if it meant saving the city several hundred million dollars. Hmmm. Hmm. Yeah, I don't get it either.

In other news Bowden is looking at Corey Koskie, Christian Guzman, and Vinny Castilla. Either Bowden believes the new owners will not be able to raise the budget as much as I'm thinking (and has been reported) or he's currently getting mushed carrots fed to him by a nurse as he makes decisions by pointing to shapes and colors.

It's coming, it really is

2004-11-15T07:43:00.000-08:00

First base analysis has been done and will be up tonight. Me and the weekend don't lend to putting stuff up here.

In the meantime read this article from the Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A49995-2004Nov14_3.html

It's accurate but it only hints at the overall picture. Since the area was already undergoing revitalization and Denver's economy, catching the 90's bull markets, boomed accross the board; it is hard to make out the effect Coors Field had. It seems pretty obvious that the parks that get lauded for reviatlizing downtowns (Coors, Camden Yards, and Jacobs Field) all were opened in the early-mid 90's, when the economy was booming. The numerous ones opened later have seen no economic benefit. And we're supposed to believe this is just a coincidence? Washington's Anacostia district has some minor revitalization going on - but right now the economy is struggling. It's touch and go at best.

Also Coors Field benefited a small area of the city at the expense of everyone in the area (higher sales tax helped pay for the stadium). Yet they only ever talk to the people around the stadium. It's like asking Dad how he felt about that new motorcycle he bought. Surprise, he thinks it's great! But mom is trying to stretch the grocery budget, and little Billy is wondering why he can't get a baseball glove that fits better as Dad tears off down the road, Born to be Wild running through his head. Ask the suburbs of Denver how they felt about funding the baseball stadium, while showing them options of where this boon economy money could have gone. I don't think you'd see all that much support.

Sally Jenkins with a fine piece of writing.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43902-2004Nov11.html

Rowdy Rowdy, Bowdeny Bowdeny

2004-11-13T08:18:00.000-08:00

Just a note, for you guys on what I'm thinking of when I make my positional analysis. I believe that the Expos are focusing on three things, pitching, shortstop, and power. I also am going on the belief the Expos are looking to raise there payroll to about 55 million, which means another 20 million. Given a significant bump to Wilkerson's salary, this means the signing of at most 2 more high caliber players. I think one of those will be a pitcher so only one positional free agent signing of any Wow factor can be made.

As for the GM Jim Bowden, which I never covered...well I don't think that much of him. I felt he was a little overrated when the Boy Wonder was first hired with the Reds in the mid-90's. He lucked out on Pete Schourek having a carreer year and the hitting (alot of which was in place before he came) coming together. Then again I feel that he was a little underrated later in his career. The Griffey, Jr. signing belw up in his face and sucked up the Reds money, keeping him from getting any quality pitching.

In all I found he can manage a minor league allright, and can ID good bargains at #4 and #5 in the rotation. Doesn't really get your blood flowing. His moves so far - releasing Rocky Biddle and bringing up some minor leaguers. Are both good, but obvious, calls. Let's see what he can do this offseason, besides the obvious two years of Barry Larkin at short.

First base position analysis should be up today.

Expos Position Analysis - Catcher

2004-11-10T07:16:00.000-08:00

Catcher
Starter: Brian Schneider
Back-Up: Einar Diaz
In the Minors: Noone. No seriously. Nadie.

BRIAN SCHNEIDER
Bats: Left Age in 2005 : 28 Contract: 2004 1-yr $350,000
2004 Stats: .257 12 49 42 BB 63 K .399 Slug .325 OBP
What can be said about Brian Schneider that hasn't been said before when someone uttered "Eh."?

Past: Schneider was a moderately touted catching prospect who was remarkably consistent in his "average-ness" at the plate in the minors. When he was first called up with the Expos he platooned with Michael Barrett, and showed a little more pop than expected. Given that Barrett had an awful year was ready to become a free-agent, Montreal let him go and went with Schneider as the undisputed #1 catcher in 2004.

Present: Schneider bounced back from his own dismal year in 2003 to have another average affair. He improved both his stats against lefties and his plate discipline a bit, although it should be noted that Einar Diaz had most of the tough lefty at-bats this year. Most catchers begin to round into form in their 3rd-4th year behind the plate. This was Brian's third so I wouldn't expect too much more from him that what we saw this year.

Trying to be more positive, Brian is an very good defensive catcher. He threw out half the runners against him and is liked by the pitching staff. Supposedly he does a bunch of little stuff well.

Future:
Best Case: Brian finds his stroke and some plate discipline and becomes a solid .280 20+ HR guy. A better defensive Posada-lite
Worst Case: Brian never learns to hit lefties well or keep his bat on his shoulders and kind of flounders as a .250 no-power player only against righties.
Probable: Most catchers do develop a bit later than their counterparts. Brian should improve against lefties with more at-bats, but I wouldn't expect him to get better than acceptable at hitting them. Against righties he could because a solid, though not feared hitter. Probably around a .270 15+ HR guy.

EINAR DIAZ
Bats: Right Age in 2005 : 33 Contract: 2004 1-yr $2,587,500 with a 3.2 million option for 2005
2004 Stats: .223 1 11 11 BB 10 K .302 Slug .293 OBP
Has any team ever carried only one catcher?

Past: Diaz had a couple of good average, no-power, no-walk years, and the Indians foolishly decided to sign him to a nice back-loaded contract. Then they realized they had Victor Martinez coming and moved him to the Rangers for a year. Then the Rangers wanted to cut some salary and moved Einar to the Expos. The Ranger did pay 2 million of this years salary by the way.

Present: Diaz got most of the hard lefty starts and didn't do to well. He got the occasional start versus a righty and also fared pretty poorly. The 'Spos declined to pay him 3+ million for this next year.

Future:
Best Case: Einar's career fizzles out as a second-string catcher somewhere
Worst Case: Einar's done.
Probable: Einar will probably sign somewhere real cheap as insurance. If he's lucky he'll be a third-string/emergency catcher on a good team for a few years. The market for an aging singles hitting catcher is small.

FREE AGENTS
Good catchers aren't usually available as free agents. The market is wary enough of this injury prone position to keep costs down and good catchers are usually a high priority to keep. In this years market I looked for players that were as young and/or likely to hit better than Schneider. I came up with Varitek, and maybe Damien Miller. Varitek is precisely the type of clubhouse presence you'd want in this team, and he's got a ring now, but he'll likely price himself too high for the 'Spos. Miller has proven himself consistently slightly better than what Schneider will probably put up.

DECISION
Stick with Schneider. As a non free-agent he'll be cheap and he could very well have a break out year. Or at least "break out" into ok. The worst I see is another average year and an average lefty- hitting good-fielding catcher is something you should probably hold onto until he prices himself out or you luck into something better.

As a replacement for Diaz at back-up, the minors are empty. Doug Mirabelli, Todd Pratt, and John Flaherty are all righty hitters that'll probably show a little more pop than Schneider - which would be a nice change of pace. One of them should be cheap. Unfortunately there's exactly 1 catcher with more walks than K's (Jason Kendall) so Schneider won't get any guidance here. The Expos could also go after Ramon Castro, someone once pretty highly-touted, who's still young.

T-minus 13 (or +1 depending)

2004-11-10T07:11:00.000-08:00

Washington Post decides now, after the potential vote, to outline the "payoffs". Nothing surprising here. Just politics.

Some GMs are surprised, but GM Bowden works on.

Unless something kooky happens, I'll probably be lite on vote postings for a week or two. I'm a bit tired of reading people trying to justify giving money to rich people.

Rain Delay on Council Vote

2004-11-09T09:17:00.000-08:00

Please enjoy this presentation of "Legal Eagles" starring Robert Redford.

Councilwoman Cropp, within her rights as the chair, removed the bill on the stadium from the agenda for another two weeks. She says she can come up with up to $350 million in private financing for the stadium in its original location. Good luck.

This is a real risky move. If she can somehow come up with private financing, even if it's "only" 100 million, she'll be a hero. MLB can't say "No we'd rather take the money from the public" can they? MLB will most likely amend the deal to fit the new parameters, with the public still taking a big hit and responsible for any overruns.

If she can't get the money - or gets a paltry percentage of the cost - she'll look like a fool, who tabled the measure as a last ditch attempt knowing her RFK proposal would not go through.

Evidence suggests that the council members believe the "fool version" to be true. When Cropp moved first to table the bill, she could not get the votes. She used her chair powers to move it two weeks later. Remember this only needs to be approved by Dec 31st, so there should be no big rush to get it approved. I can't believe that if the council thought it was possible for her to get this money, that they wouldn't have at least explored the option for 2 weeks. Of course, the seven in favor of it could simply be lackeys for the Mayor or afraid their personal projects that are being promised money could be hurt by a new deal.

Rock(y Biddle) the Vote!

2004-11-09T06:52:00.000-08:00

Today is the DC Council's vote on the stadium financing plan. The Mayor thinks he has the votes to pass his version. I'm sure helped a bit by promising funds for two of the crucial undecided members' pet projects. (that's not being sarcastic - it's in the article The mayor focused largely on securing the votes of Jim Graham (D-Ward 1) and Sandy Allen (D-Ward 8). Staffers for the two said they were leaning toward supporting the mayor because Williams would fund libraries for Graham and a recreation center for Allen. See? I wouldn't lie to you, baby.)

But can they ignore the will of the people? (stupid question - of course they can) . 69% don't want city funds for the stadium, more than half strongly opposed. Around 60% think it's a bad deal for the District. Although around 60% also think it will help the city economically (though they were given no choices on how much) This citizen got it right: (Mayor) Williams "just let everybody know that we had to have baseball," said Ceasar Short, 57, a bus driver who lives in Northeast. "It was a bad deal. He wanted baseball too much. They knew this guy, he was a pushover when it came to baseball."

And then there is this ridiculous statement from the Mayor's spokesman: "Bender said. "Is it possible that businesses may pass some of this tax on to residents? That's a decision businesses will have to make. But what is the size of that pass-through going to be? Pennies." Yes, the Mayor's office is actually saying that the businesses and corporations will choose to accept the burden of higher taxes. Nothing a business likes to do more than lose profit, I tell you what. Worse yet, the Mayor's office looks like it's going to spin the completely expected pass through of burden to the people as "big bad business screwing the little guy" rather than the Mayor's bad deal. If you raise taxes on a business they pass on most of the new cost, if not all, to the consumer; this is basic economic theory and the Mayor's office knows this.

Coucilman David Catania, an opponent, got his chance to chat at the post and fills you in on some of the details with much more skill that I ever could. I must admit that based on the questions he faced - it seems like the people sending in questions are the ones that already agree with the chatter.

Well, the vote is today. I'll keep you posted.

Mayor Williams Unplugged

2004-11-08T10:14:00.000-08:00

Mayor Williams agreed to do a Q&A on The Washington Post today. Here is a rundown of what was said and my reaction (in a vibrant, yet tasteful red)

Bristow, Va.: Mayor Williams: I wish you the best in your endeavor to bring the Washington Nationals to Washington, D.C. I really believe that the agreed on site on the Anacostia near the Navy yard is the only viable site that MLB will agree to unless another site in DC near Downtown and further from Baltimore can be found. RFK Stadium and Vicinity for a permanent site is a complete non-starter or no-go for a team in Washington.

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: Thanks everyone for the opportunity to visit with you. In fact, RFK is a non-starter. It's in a residential neighborhood, has limited or zero economic development potential, and in fact is not much cheaper than the Anacostia site.

(Way to chose a biting comment there, Washington Post. Go for the jugular! Williams misrepresents a bit, but just a bit. The RFK site is near residential. It's not like houses will be razed to build the stadium. It is unlikely to develop economically, but according to almost all studies so is any area - thanks to a stadium. It's not much cheaper - probably less than the 20% figure, but when you're up at totals over 500 million any percentage cheaper is a big deal.)

Washington, D.C.: According to the Washington Post, "Some prospective ownership groups of the team said they thought that Cropp's plan would not automatically reduce the value of the franchise or tamp down bids". This suggests that some prospective ownership groups believe that a new stadium site near RFK may be revenue neutral from a business standpoint (compared to the site near South Capitol Street). If their analysis supports this conclusion, then why not go with the least cost solution and give beleagured DC taxpayers a break?

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: In fact, baseball values the RFK site less than than the South Capitol site. As for beleagured taxpayers, we ought to be seeking maximum benefit for our investment. The South Capitol St site offers this; RFK doesn't. And finally, all of this is moot because baseball will not come to the District to play at RFK. I just heard this again today -- for the nth time.

(Decent point in this actual question. Baseball values the RFK site less, but actual businessmen who would buy the team don't really care. A stadium supported by the public will be a windfall for any owner, regardless of the area around it. It's only an issue to MLB who want it as far away from Angelos as possible. They will also keep saying they won't play at an RFK site...until they have no choice. Just look at past labor negotiations. It always is "we won't go any further than this", then they always do. The Mayor's point about investment is a true, but it's like saying "If I'm going to throw my money away on a lottery ticket, might as well make it for 100 million". The fact is it's a bad investment, and the money shouldn't be going there at all.)
_______________________
Washington, D.C.: Given that Councilwoman Cropp's plan will lead to no new development around the proposed stadium, will her plan in fact save the city any money at all at the net level? It just appears penny wise and pound foolish to me.

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: It doesn't produce what the Anacostia Site produces and it doesn't cost much less. First of all, we don't own the site. The National Park Service does. And they don't turn over property overnight. (I know.) Second, there are federal environmental rules that are triggered, and the Wilson Bridge was delayed two years. That costs money. Finally, we won't get the same lease payment from the RFK site. So you're really not saving a significant amount of money, with no benefit.

(Wow. Another tough one for the mayor. These may all be valid points - I'm not familiar enough with the land laws of the district to say otherwise. But he offered no real hard numbers or evidence to support his stance that it wouldn't save money, just a lot of conjecture. And that last statement, makes him look foolish. Saving money is the benefit.)

_______________________
Washington, D.C.: How confident are you that you can get the 7 votes needed?

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: As confident as I can be with a legislative process. Look, this is about keeping our commitment. Baseball did not want to come to DC, we lured them here and agreed to the Anacostia Site. We've already gone over RFK with them and they don't want it. Do we want baseball or not? Do we want economic development with baseball or not? These are the questions.

(Baseball did not want to come to DC? Ha! He's no Margaret Cho, but damn that's funny. Once Governor Warner wised up and said no to the Northern Virginia plan, baseball desparately wanted to go to DC. It had Vegas and Norfolk ready. Portland was close. But it was no contest. They wanted DC, the Mayor wanted them, but they would only agree to a sweetheart deal. So he crafted up one and promised it to them, without really debating it or seeing if the public wanted it. Notice also he doesn't even offer the prospect of economic development without baseball, as if the only way this area can be improved is if baseball comes in and saves the day. )
_______________________
Washington, D.C.: Has Councilwoman Cropp been in touch with MLB, and if so what is their position on the RFK site? How confident do you feel about passage without her support?

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: She has and they've told her what they've told me. You committed to a deal. Period. This would break that commitment.

(As Congresswoman Cropp explains herself, the deal has changed so it's not fair to count on her continued committment : "This is like negotiating $28,000 for a car to be paid out over a certain number of years. But when it comes time for me to sign the document, the price of the car has escalated to $48,000 a year and they have added another six years or so during which I have to pay that," Cropp said. "I would not handle my business like that, and I would not handle the citizens' business like that," she added. I disagree with her plan too, but in this point she's completely correct.)
_______________________
Washington, D.C.: Dear Mayor Williams:
Just wanted to let you know as a resident of DC for over 10 years, I support your position entirely. Baseball can be a revitalizing force, but it cannot revitalize a parking lot! Is there anything I can do to help? I'm in Fenty's ward and he has expressed that he is not supporting either position. I just hoped that Cropp's Folly doesn't ruin the return of baseball for all of us!

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: Fenty is not being responsible on this. I don't see my job as a weather man. That's not the job I sought and it's not what I was elected to do. I was elected to enslave myself to the people the great majority of the time, leaving me to use my own judgement (even at my political peril) in a few key instances. I'm leading here, not following, because it's in the long-term interests of the city. The best thing you can do is have people call Councilman Jim Graham and others who haven't declared their final position.

(So far this makes 3 supporting comments, 2 nuetral, and one leaning toward negative. A quick glance below gives one more negative and a bunch of nuetrals. Just so you know where the Post stands...

This is an age old political debate - on whether an elected official is to simply voice what the majority of people he represents want or if they elected them trusting their judgement, knowing at times they may disagree, for the people's own good. I lean toward the latter view, BUT only on things that are split close the middle, or if you can prove that the people are misguided. This is neither situation. To say Fenty is being irresponsible for probably being more in tune with the people he represents and defending a position on public funding that has facts and real-life examples on his side is unbelievable. )
_______________________
Washington, D.C.: Mayor williams: Why does it seem that virtually every other city that has proposed a publicly-funded stadium has let it's citizens vote on that proposal? Yet, you have not pushed for us to vote a potentially half billion dollar project?
A ward six VOTER

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: First, we don't have the time. And second, I was elected to represent my constituents. I know I face a penalty if the citizens don't agree with me, but that's leadership, not followship.

(Special elections can be difficult to set up and face turnout problems but I imagine it could have been placed on the ballot for the November election with little issue. The point he raises is the same as in the last question. But often major decisive issues do go to the public - because you want the voters to have the responsibility for such things (like the gay marriage issues). The real reason he didn't want a vote is because it would have failed. Of course almost all higher taxes issues would fail to get popular support, so this isn't a strike against the Mayor's plan in particular.)
_______________________
Washington, D.C.: Mayor Williams,
Thank you for taking the time to do this.
Do you think the money generated from the Expos franchise will offset the majority of DC's investment in the stadium? And can MLB still back out of their deal, or will the Expos be moving here no matter what?
Thank you again.

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: MLB may play temporarily at RFK. But they will not play there permanently. It's not on the table. That's why this talk of an alternative is just that, talk.

(He didn't even answer that first question. Not a good sign.

Like I said, they'll be at RFK next year definately (so Montreal can stop hoping). After that they may move, but in my mind MLB would take almost any offer to stay in DC. The Mayor doesn't want to take that chance though. Anything but the Anacostia stadium would be a political failure for him. How would you like it if you were shown to not have negotiated the best deal for your constituents, potentially costing them millions? )
_______________________
Manassas, Va.: How about thinking about creative ways to further help the district.
Maryland and VA have license plates that raise money. How about a Nationals License plate (Sell souvenir plates too so that those outside the area can buy them.)
Buy a brick program - a personalized brick in the areas around the stadium.
The proceeds can go to city programs.

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: I'm all for creative financing techniques, achieving a symbolic as well as substantive purpose.

(Whatever. The Post is either ignoring the hard questions or considering them already answered by the softballs raised earlier. No questions about previous studies? About other examples where it didn't work? About forcing the vote before the anti-stadium newly elected officials take office? I find that hard to believe)
_______________________
Arlington, Va.: Mr. Mayor: In your negotiations with Mrs. Cropp, would you consider a cost cap or some form of cost containment for the Anacostia River site? Would you consider changing the responsbility for cost overruns on the original site?

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: We have alotted a generous amount for contingencies, and will contract with the builder for a guaranteed maximum price contract. Thanks.

(Sure he answered the question but they could set the maximum price at $650 million. There's no telling. Plus depending on how stringent the contract was, they could always make a new one for "extra work" on the stadium to cover the difference if they go over. This doesn't work like people think it would.)
_______________________
Washington, D.C.: Mr. Mayor -- What is the logic behind the cap on the gross receipts tax? Why are big companies let off the hook? Shouldn't they pay the same rate as small family-owned businesses, many of whom will see absolutely no benefit from the stadium?

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: There not off the hook. In fact the largest companies pay the greatest amount in our proposal.

(He's completely half-answering the question here. Yes he is correct if you consider totals - but not in percentage, which is what really matters. $6,500 to a a 4 million dollar company is far more important that $48,000 to a 300 million company. I don't have a copy of the plan in front of me, but generally small business do end up with the lion-share of the costs)
_______________________
Jacob, Washington, D.C.: I understand that the South Capitol Street site is essential to the bargain you struck with MLB. Can you explain why the site is advantageous for the District, given its higher cost, and the fact that the District has substantial needs in other areas, most notably for a public hospital?

Mayor Anthony A. Williams: The CFO has certified that economic benefits will flow from the Anacostia Site. We are tapping these benefits to create a community investment trust that will provide dollars for initiatives such as the new hospital we are planning with Howard University. Thanks everyone for writing. Watch our presentation tonight on Channel 16 at 8 p.m.

(Actually more like "economic benefits could flow". He also mentions the community investment plan and hospital as if it were things planned from the beginning. Actually, these came as opposition to the stadium remained very strong. And if there are limtied or no benefits - there will be a much smaller community investment trust. A very likely scenario)

Once, Twice, Three times the info

2004-11-08T07:26:00.000-08:00

New shocking news from Washington! Schedule for position analysis! FAQ from the Exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com!

1) In Washington this weekend, citing costs rising well above the original plan, Congresswoman Cropp came up with her own plan. The first real change is that this one uses land already owned near RFK. While I am totally against more than a marginal public funding of stadiums, this plan does seem more fiscally responsible than Plan A. The second change is that it cuts off the "payoff", which, even though it was funny money, was probably big in justifying the plan to constituents.

The Mayor, shocked that the council didn't just sit back and take it while he went off to Asia, is now scrambling for support. It's very likely neither plan will pass on Tuesday.

What do commentators think? Poor Michael Wilbon falls into step with the mayor, even using the business equivalent of the anti-stats "clubhouse presence" argument: "I can't believe the stupid junk I read from academics who spin their silly obstructionist excuses on what stadiums don't bring, when all you have to do is look at what they actually contribute in Cleveland and in Denver." Essentially he's saying - "I don't care what economic facts are telling you. The area around the parks look pretty and sports fans are telling me they are happy." The problem is academics don't care if baseball is in DC or is not. They have no reason to "spin" anything. If it actually worked they would love to have baseball come to DC. BUT IT DOESN'T WORK. Of course Wilbon claims to be a Cubs and White Sox fan so his lack of logic is not surprising.

Washington Times correspondent Thom Loverro talks about how this is great for Peter Angelos. He also uses the worst justification for building a stadium ever : "The Southeast property might not create the sort of economic growth Washington officials are hoping for either, but at least it has the perception of potential."

What does this mean for the Expos? Nothing really - MLB wants baseball in DC. If it didn't, it would have taken a sweetheart deal from another city a long while ago. No, MLB was waiting for this city. While it had a "deal" to be built on the Anacostia waterfront, if the Mayor's plan doesn't pass Tuesday and doesn't look like it will in the future, look for MLB to allow for a few changes in the plan to acquiese to a RFK ballpark. They want baseball in DC, not Norfolk, not Las Vegas, not Portland, not even Northern Virginia.

2) Position Analysis will begin with catcher - and will be out by the end of this week. I'm hoping for a Tuesday/Friday posting for these things. I will not go longer than a week between these posts. Tentative schedule:
Nov 9th - catcher
Nov 12th - first base
Nov 16th - second base
Nov 19th - third base
Nov 23rd - shortstop
Nov 30th - Right Field
Dec 7th - Remaining Outfield
Dec 14th - Starters
Dec 21st - Relief Pitchers

3) I'm also going to do a FAQ for this website. Why? Well, did you know I'm not totally against the Expos' move to DC? See? You need that FAQ.

The beat goes on

2004-11-04T10:36:00.000-08:00

In Washington Stadium news, everything has happened as expected so far. Marion Barry, Vincent Gray, and I assume the other stadium opponent did win their elections (they had previously just won the Democratic primaries - but election was virtually guaranteed. Barry won something like 18,000 to 300. )

The cost of the "payoff" continues to rise from 400 million to 450 million now. This mirrors the cost of the stadium rising from 440 to 530 (expected).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23550-2004Nov3_2.html

The 5-member committees passed the legistlature necessary to get the deal to full committee vote on the 7th. On this I'd like to take a minute to point out Council member, Kevin Chavous. After getting ousted by a anti-stadium opponent, he voted for the stadium proposal on both committees. Way to stick it to the people, Kevin! You sure showed them for not voting for you! That's a great elected official! (Actually this is a bit premature as committee things are often passed with less trial than full votes, but I fully expect him to screw the people he represents. Don't let me down, Kev.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19828-2004Nov2.html

What does this mean? Nothing you didn't know.

The $450 million is fools' gold. Money promised off the taxes proponents are sure will be generated by all those businesses wanting to build near the stadium despite no previous evidence really backing them up. The eventual trickle will not even reach the communites till years down the road.

The $530 total for the stadium will be passed. It just always is. I wouldn't be surprised if the stadium hit $600 million.

The proposal will most likely pass. It only needs 7 votes to do it (it is a 13 member council) and 4 said yes in the committees. Jim Ward and Councilwoman "the money can't go for anything else" Cropp, are sure yeses. Assuming no changes of heart only one more would be needed to push it over the top and at that point Mayor Williams will probably be giving out his ATM code to get this passed.

Coming Attractions: "Expos Updates" and "RFK and bust"?

2004-10-31T21:11:00.000-08:00

Position Analysis? Doesn't that grab you?

I'll soon be filling this blog with position by position analysis (flawed analysis granted, but really you just want something to read) of the Expos, trying to determine who should be starting next year, who should be on the bench, and who should be on the road to Wellville. Or something like that. It should be a good read for all you interested in the Endy/Sledge battle.

I'll also be keeping you up to date with the latest in the Washington saga, as the Mayor and MLB try to get that snake-oil sale in writing. It should happen, but it is not set in stone. I'd give the chances right around 80%. If it doesn't - look out, things will get very interesting.

Here's a nicely written piece that gets you up-to-date.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12330-2004Oct30.html

Big Day in Washington

2004-10-28T11:40:00.000-07:00

It's an ol' fashioned D.C. Council hearing. Get me shotgun, granny!

Over 170 people have signed up to speak at the council hearing. Some in favor of it, probably more opposed

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A683-2004Oct26.html

Excluding the economic arguments for the time being, given these statements concerning the public funding of a stadium, whcih sides seems more compelling to you?

FOR:
"It will be really exciting for my players to see a baseball game for the first time in their lives and to have baseball players as athletic role models," said Frazier O'Leary, the baseball coach at Cardozo High, who plans to testify.

Jay Haddock, general manager of the Capital Hotel group, said he believes the stadium would improve Washington's image nationally. "We're not second to Baltimore or other cities that have baseball teams," he said. "Let's do it and be proud of it."

AGAINST:
"They want a multimillion-dollar stadium for millionaires, and we don't have rec centers for kids," said Angela Jones, executive director of D.C. Action for Children.

Sczerina Perot, an activist for the homeless, wondered how city leaders could propose such a plan when they routinely reject her pleas for funds. "I heard that [rejection] about everything I ask for," she said.

My favorite quote in the piece was this gem by the Mayor.:
"I can't imagine why, with all the things happening in the world, the Cato Institute would take the time to analyze the impact of baseball in Washington, D.C.," Williams (D) said yesterday during a luncheon speech at the University Club

It reminds me of someone getting busted for speeding complaining that the cops should be fighting terrorists.

Oh and as I predicted here on exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com, he's caving even more now upping the ante to 400 million. The man is desparate. I hear next he'll offer piggy back rides to and from the stadium for all kids under 12.

Another show of opposition by the angry public here, in case you're bored.

Playoffs: Winners and Losers and Others

2004-10-28T06:03:00.000-07:00

Winners: Red Sox. Losers: Everyone Else. Too simple? Ok...

Winners
Red Sox : Don't need to say why.

Curt Schilling: After the fact, his injury was probably less serious than it was made out to be. Bloody and potentially career threatening sure, but more "potentially" then we, craving a hero story, wanted to believe. Doesn't matter though. Came to Boston to win a World Series, then they did.

David Ortiz: "Papi" becomes legend.

Us: No more talk about the curse or how "You can't understand agony if you aren't a Red Sox fan, blah, blah, whine, blah..." Even the most even handed Bostonians would in one hand say how they didn't like fans talking about curses, then in the other talk about how their pain was somehow worse than not being in a World Series since 1950 and not winning one since 1908 (Cubs), not winning one since your team threw a World Series in 1919 (White Sox), never winning a playoff series in 40 years of existence (Astros), being the Phillies (Phillies), or I don't know, HAVING YOUR TEAM DESTROYED BY MLB AND MOVED AWAY?! We can only hope the Red Sox fans shut up now. I feel like I'm talking to a bank robber here. "Please you have what you want. Now just leave. There's no reason for you to whine at anyone else"

Bagwell/Biggio: Finally, the Astros won a playoff series. Takes a monkey off their back which people could have used to keep them out of the Hall. World Series probably won't come, but after all this time, this is almost as sweet.

Carlos Beltran: $$$. Best player in the playoffs by far.

John Scherholz: Braves in the playoffs again? After losing those guys and having these guys? Forget moneyball, what is this guy doing?

Johan Santana: Ready to be "the next big thing" next year.

Jose Lima: Just cause we love Lima Time!

Losers:

Angels/Cardinals: Getting beat in the playoffs can be tough luck. Getting swept in the playoffs means your team did something wrong. It happens, I know, but it generally happens because a team chokes. Sorry.

Rolen/Edmonds: Noone remembers other playoff series chokers, but they remember World Series chokers. 1-30 combined. One for Thirty. Uno por Treinta. Que barbaridad!

MLB: Boston tragedy was a great marketing gimmick. They might try to move on this "noone feels our pain" to another team. The Cubs would be an obvious choice but pain rolls off the Cubs...especially since their crowd is usually 50% tourists looking to get drunk. Could the White Sox be next in line (actually could they realize that the White Sox were actually ahead in line?)

Tony LaRussa: World Series will buy him a few more years in St. Louis, but so far, with superior record teams at least, he's a whopping 1-3 in the WS, with a 1-12 record in the losses. Will continue to be painted as a manager who thinks he's smarter than he is.

Atlanta: Having to give away playoff tickets really doesn't help convince people you're not the city with the worst sports fans in America.

Nomar: Nomah wasn't needed. Bet he feels wicked awful.

Others:

Yankees: Any other team would be forced to relive a collapse like the Yanks had in the ALCS for the next 50 years, but winning a quarter of all World Series shields you from a few things. If they don't win another one in the next say...10 to 20 years you can move them to the Loser category as this will become a "defining moment". If they win one in the next couple years though, it's pretty much a blip on the screen.

Milton Bradley: Outburst at the end of the season hurt his team, but who thought the Dodgers were going anywhere anyway? Wait. One more Lima Time! Everybody congo!

Bobby Cox: Some will say this was his greatest coaching job, others will say it was just another Atlanta choke. I believe it's way closer to the former. While this constant "almost there" does weigh on his coaching record, he has a World Series ring and that's what counts.

Albert Pujols: Didn't dominate series as the best non-roided hitter in baseball should, but didn't let the team down. Unfortunately, middling hitting stats don't make you stand out from the rest of the team. He could easily get branded a choker with the rest of them.

Twins: Small market team that needs to get to a WS soon. Not because they're aging, but because another couple of playoff losses and the media will brand them a team that chokes in the playoffs. Fortunately for them, next year might be their best chance with their young hitters having a year under their belt.

National Embarassment

2004-10-27T09:05:00.000-07:00

Is it too late that we ask to switch leagues rather than cities?

The Cardinals are completely not-representing in the World Series, going down meekly and it's frankly embarrasing. It's not bad enough that we've gotten beat up by the AL in the All-Star games recently (haven't won one since 1996. And only 3 times since 1987, when our string of formerly unprecedented dominance ended). Now we're completely blowing another World Series. You can blame the Yankees late 90s dynasty if you like, but since 1990 the Senior Circuit has won 4 out of 11 World Series. Only one of these triumphs were by a truly great team (the mid 90's Braves). The other three have been by a Marlins team who are better remembered for their dismantling then their championship; an average Diamondback team carried by two Hall of Fame pitchers, and another Marlins team who's status is yet to be determined.

Think about that. Only one World Series in the last 12 years was one by an NL team around before 1993. You can't see it but I'm shaking my head right now. Somber-lily.

In the latest debacle, aka Game 3 of the 2004 World Series, Pedro for the first three innings was ready to be beaten. His control was off. His pitches were flat and getting hit pretty hard. But the Cardinals (led incidently by the man at the lead of the AL the last time the NL was competitive in the World Series) ran themselves out of at least 1 run, probably more like 3 or 4. I'd love to say the fans in St. Louis will get to see a much deserved World Series game victory, but most of me believes St. Louis will start trying to run to third on their base hits now, like a prissy girl in a sitcom softball episode. Seriously, they are running the basepaths like a minor league mascot. I half-expected to see Jeff Suppan chasing down an 8 year old boy on the replay, but just getting edged out at the plate.

The pitching has been poor, true. But really only Williams got shelled and the Cards could have taken that game. Tonight it's all on the line with Marquis.

Oh and enough with the 3-4-5 hitters (pujols, rolen, edmonds) being 5-33. You're completely screwing with the data. It's Pujols 4-11, Rolen 0-11, Edmonds 1-11. I know it hasn't been like Pujols is smashing the ball but don't lump him in with the greatest fielding crybaby of all time, and Mr. Try and Dive (sorry I'm a bit mad at their WS performance. Actually they are great players). Better to say Edmonds, Rolen, and Sanders are 1-31. That tells the story without the trying to blame an "innocent" Pujols.

Achilles and LaRussa

2004-10-24T19:55:00.000-07:00

Oh what damage an overthinking manager can do...

Schilling had injured his ankle and was pounded by the Yanks in Game 1. When presented with the information that the ankle was the definitive problem site, common sense was that you had to "attack" it. Make Schilling throw as many pitches on that bad ankle as possible and try to make him field more, in other words bunt. The Yankees said "To hell with that, we pounded him once we can do it again" and ignored the advice. Well Schilling is a smart enough pitcher to know when he's not at 100%. He was slightly better in game 6, but more important he approached the game differently and with the help of an over-zealous and pressing Yankee line-up, a cold dreary night, and a few breaks on hard hit balls, he was able to keep the Yanks at bay. (For those thinking I'm downplaying Schilling's game - he said so much himself) Not great overpowering pitching but real smart pitching.

So tonight, you are Tony LaRussa and you have seen that simply trying to hit Schilling on a cold and dreary night, such as the one you'd face tonight, would probably not end with the results you want. You might get a few runs, but a veteran pitcher of his quality would keep it close. All experts at least advocate trying bunting to take advantage of this situation. The last thing you want is to keep it close. So what do you do?

Plan A - Bunt early and often; making Schilling field. Be real aggressive on the base pathes to make him throw over a lot and throw from the stretch. Anything to aggravate that ankle.

or
Plan B - Talk about bunting, but in reality do nothing different than the Yankees did and hope that somehow this works out completely different than everyone expects it to. Like dropping a stone out of a window and hoping it flies instead of drops to the ground.

If you chose Plan A, go back to coaching Little League, pops. You're not ready for the show. If you chose Plan B, start pulling out your quotes about "Going with your gut" and "Taking it one game at a time" You're ready to go in.

(As it stands now the Cardinals were shut down by Schilling thanks to smart pitching, the weather and some luck on hard hit balls. Who would have guessed. Oh yeah, that's right. EVERYBODY)

I believe that if it were LaRussa sent out to face Achilles the conversation would have gone something like this:

"Hey, Tony. You need to hit his ankle that's his weak point"
"That's nice but it's not my usual game plan. I like attacking the crotch with my sword"
"I'm serious Tony. The only way you can hurt him is by hitting the ankle. He's invulnerable every where else"
"Ok how about this. I'll tell him I'm going to hit his ankle and then when he's busy protecting that. WHAM, straight in the groin!"
"Tony, you're not listening. I'll make it simple for you. Ankle=victory. Not ankle=loss. "
"Gotcha. Fake toward the ankle, then he'll totally be exposed for the ball shot"
"I can see how you turned the most dominant team of the late 80's into a one WS wonder."
"Wuzzat?"

World Series pick

2004-10-24T09:33:00.000-07:00

Came into this a day late, but I'll stick with what I was going to say anyway.

Cardinals in Seven

Exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com, has been right every pick with the Cardinals, wrong every pick against the Red Sox. SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE!

Why the Cardinals. Well, I expect their starting pitchers to have 5 games where they pitch well holding the Red Sox to less than 4 runs. I expect the Red Sox pitchers to have maybe 2 of the same type of game. In my mind the Cardinals win in 5 (decidely tougher after last night) but I'm not going to bet against the Red Sox going to a game 7 in any series.

I've got cleaning to do but I'll be back with more WS thoughts sometime today,

Politics? In D.C? You're kidding me.

2004-10-22T13:04:00.000-07:00

Another politics article in the Washington Post

To summarize:
Opposition is not strong against the Stadium. It will pass. Yay, baseball in DC! (you can see I don't think this article is coming straight down the middle)

However I feel about the article's slant (and the paper's general pro-stadium stance), there are truths here.

The opposition is not as strong as the support - It just isn't. However it's not weak as this article would like you to believe. There are only 13 members to the council. Only 8 have committed support to the plan (as of Oct 2nd), meaning 5 do not support it. A few of these 8 wanted to see more details before voting in favor of it. And it's been noted that the three more anti-public funding members joining the council in January might have enough power to override any mayoral veto of the Council's decision. It takes 9 out of the 13 to do that, so we're talking at least 6 have to be on the fence or in opposition already.

Mayor Williams is out on a limb here - Oh god, yes. He basically told MLB to come to DC and he'll get everything sorted out for them for next year. A lack of a stadium deal would totally screw MLB, (they can't go back to Montreal then, could they?). It would also most likely rule out DC baseball for at least another 30 years. Not worth the trouble. It could even potentially put a crimp on any re-election ideas. Would you want to be known as the mayor who tried to use the public's money to help baseball AND the mayor who screwed up baseball in DC?

It will probably be passed
Oct 2nd - "Though eight council members have said they generally support the mayor's stadium package, several, including Cropp, have also cautioned that they want more details before they commit their votes. "

Oct 20th - "I do think that may be where it ends up, even though that's not where we want it to end up," said Ed Lazere, executive director of the D.C. Fiscal Policy Institute and a leader of a coalition called No D.C. Taxes for Baseball. "It's an uphill battle," Lazere said of stopping the stadium. "Our chances, if we had a vote today, are pretty slim. I don't think we'd win."

What were the more details?
"The mayor has since floated the idea of finding an additional $20 million a year for schools and other pressing needs. And mayoral aides who will testify at the public hearing said this week that they hope to appease critics on the council by offering new details on how the stadium could generate money for such a fund. "

Basically he's paying off the areas in question. It probably won't stop at $20 million though. The mayor is in a tough spot with little room for negotiation. They'll ask for the moon and he'll give it to them to get this passed. I guess it's good that they get the money they need for schools and hospitals, but where's it going to come from? How does one "find" $20 million?

Heads I win, Tails you lose

2004-10-22T05:33:00.000-07:00

The Cardinals kept up the 50% winning percentage of this blog. Good for them. That means I have a coin flip's chance of guessing the World Series winner correctly. In fact I'll put a coin up against me tomorrow.

Now about those Championship Series...

Boston v New York

You're all going to laugh but what struck me as the biggest single event of the series wasn't a game ending hit by Ortiz, or either start by Schilling, but an injury to John Olerud. That's right, an injury to John Olerud.

Olerud was injured in the late innings of the Yankees game 3 laugher win and was replaced in the lineup for essentially the rest of the series by Tony Clark. In the next 3 games, all super-close, Mr. Clark went 3-17 with 8 strikeouts and no walks. (He also had two at bats in Game 3; 0-2 1K if you were wondering). Olerud was not tearing up the games before (2-10 with a walk), but he was seeing slightly more pitches than Tony Clark (ok very slightly) and was putting the ball in play more. We're not talking a hidden slugger like Scott Brosius and his .300 average batting ninth, but it's something to think about. In game 7 it wouldn't have mattered, but forcing one of the tired Red Sox pitchers to throw 5-10 more pitches, a timely walk, or a simple moving the runner over could have made the difference in either of the two extra-innings affairs or the 4-2 Schilling game. I really think it might have.

(Of course Schilling's injury was more important but that happened pre-series)

Astros v Cardinals

All the talk is about the Astros lineup (especially Beltran), the Cardinals lineup (especially Pujols), or the exceptional job that the Astros non-aces did. What is lost is the consistent "goodness" of the Cardinals' starters.

Here are there stats (starter IP/R)
Williams 6/4, Morris 5/3, Suppan 6/3, Maquis 4/3, Williams 7/0, Morris 5/3, Suppan 6/2

What we have here is a staff that keeps a good slugging team in the ballgame. They've been doing it all year long. We look at them and assume they aren't playoff worthy because they won't shut anyone down, and true they wouldn't have beaten 2001 Schilling/Johnson. But they don't screw-up and they give the Cardinals hope every single game.

1 down - 1 to go

2004-10-21T05:37:00.000-07:00

Well the Red Sox pulled it off. The Cardinals need to win tonight to keep exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com's fantastic prediction percentage of 50%. Jeff Suppan v Roger Clemens? Looks like we're going all in with a pair of 2's.

While El Gran Color Naranja admits to no allegience but Les Expos, he does have a lot of friends. One of which is a Yankee fan, who had an interesting view on last nights game - so I told him to write something up for it and I'd publish it on a blog noone reads. He could hardly resist that dangling carrot; so lady and gentleman "Pags in Rags"

I said 'Bedraggled Pags'. 'Pags in Rags' sounds like a sexual relationship between Dave Righetti and Mike Pagliarulo

I stand by what I said. The tension was so thick you could cut it with a knife!

Whatever. Ok, the game. I feel bad. I feel awful. I haven't felt like this since...well since we lost the World Series last year. Yes it is worse because we lost after leading 3-0. And yes it is worse because it's our rival. I know I won't be watching SportsCenter or going to internet sites (I've already set up straight to NFL links for ESPN and SI) or much TV at all because I don't want to hear about it. But I feel different too. There’s not an emptiness to the loss. Disappointment? Sure. Depression. Uh Huh. Random Red Sox fan beating. Done and done. But it’s not all-encompassing pain. A month from now I won’t be focused on this loss. And this is where being a Yankee fan must be different than being a fan of almost any other team. I wake up today and I’m still the fan of the most successful team in the history of sports. Since the first baseball season I can remember, I’ve still seen my team win more World Series than any other team has been to. (Ed note – Actually I know his age and the Braves are 1-3 during his fantime. Same as the Yankees number of wins) I know this won’t be our last chance at one, or that we’ll have to wait even 5 years to have as good a shot to get there. I know our owner will put back more money into the team to win rather than pocket it. I know we’ll be back probably next year. And we’ll probably win it.

Any comments, Rusty?

Well, you’re very humble. I’d qualify the “successful team” to be “in professional sports that I care to think about” but other than this, I don’t think he’s blowing smoke. I’ve been privy to many a college rivalry where one team is the dominant one and has all the accolades and while you never want to lose to your rival – it just doesn’t have the same bite for you. Like say Oklahoma losing to Oklahoma State in football after leading by 28 in the 4th, or Kansas losing to Missouri after leading by 10 with a minute left in basketball. Even if it changed the course of the season, the loss isn’t nearly as painful as if it was the other way around.

I’ve got a comment or two on the series but I’ll wait till after the great NLCS is over before I comment.

2 Playoff Angry Fan Notes

2004-10-19T07:12:00.000-07:00

1) Is any other National League Fan angry with the percentage of coverage the NCLS is getting. Sure the ALCS has been great, extra-innings, lots of drama. But last night here are the two scenarios

- at home, the team favored to win, wins their second game at home in extra innings to stave off elimination for one more game
- at home, the team NOBODY thought would win, takes the series lead with a three run home run in the bottom of the ninth, after 8 1/2 innings of shutout ball from the most improbable pitchers against potent lineups.

I'm sorry but scenario #2 is more compelling. Anyone else here not think that even if the Yanks/Sox was a regular ol 5-3 or 6-2 game that it still would have gotten the lead coverage?

2) Rivera's "blown save" - Saying he blew two games in a row is ignoring the fact he came in with runners at first and third and no outs and was perfect through 2. What else can you expect from the guy? He's still great, this falls totally on Gordon, but I hear nary a mention of that. (or of the Pedro at 100 pitch craziness - THANK GOD. I'd be pleased if I were you that the Red Sox won just because you don't have to hear more of that crap.

Playoffs continued

2004-10-18T05:43:00.000-07:00

Games like Sunday's Yanks-Sox is why I can't believe it will be a short series. I just can't see the Yankees finishing it out in Boston. The Red Sox bats are just as potent as the Yankees and their pitching...well now there pitching is spent, but still. I said Yanks in 6 or 7, and here at exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com, we stick by our predictions.

Except that Cardinals/Astros one. We here can also admit when we are wrong and we were here. I thought either Oswalt or Clemens would get rocked and neither of them did. Of course I didn't see Beltran turning into the best postseason player EVA, either. I still think the Cardinals take it - probably winning the next two.

Also - if there is anything I've learned in this playoffs: Don't give up a leadoff walk. With offenses such as the ones we're seeing here that's like giving the batting team a run.

More on the trial

2004-10-16T09:35:00.000-07:00

The trial (#3 in this link here) dates are coming up for MLB and things are looking up for the good guys in rouge, blanc, and bleu.

The link
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/baseball/mlb/10/15/bc.bbo.exposlawsuit.ap/index.html

Interestingly The same story in the Washington Post excludes the last few paragraphs and the line "But he added he didn't expect an unfavorable ruling." Trying to paint a positive only picture, perhaps? Alliterative Conspiracy!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37202-2004Oct15.html

"Even the Royals..." has some good links on the trial for those who are interested.

Rain Pryor go away

2004-10-15T09:47:00.000-07:00

That is one scary looking female. When looking for Head of the Class females to feature in a show the search should begin and end with Simone (Khrystyne Haje)

Another article about how the transition to DC is not a done deal yet:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A33817-2004Oct14.html

They still haven't gotten a deal done with Angelos yet. The actions of the Washington Council are reprehensible. Think about this, they are trying to force a vote in before the new members, elected on a "no new stadium" platform, get on the council. They are trying to side-step the will of the people! It's crazy.

I don't know why this isn't getting more play in the media. Oh wait. Yes I do. Noone wants to consider the possibility the Expos might, AH Stay in Montreal!! Scary. (actually I think they'll still move and just play in RFK either until someone agrees to build a stadium with their own money or they move to somewhere where the taxpayers can be duped)

Anyway, the Playoff series are both two games in and my calls are dead on this time. I'm the greatest - you're the worst. The Yankees/Red Sox should be rained out tonight. It's a shame, now they'll have to be the Monday Night appetizer. (Who here thinks a Yankees/Red Sox playoff game wouldn't draw higher ratings than Rams/Buccaneers? The Rams are ok, but who likes watching Tampa Bay? I'd say Warren Sapp, but he's too busy dragging Oakland into the ground) Despite the Red Sox ineptitude at the plate, I still won't believe that this won't go 6 or 7 games until the Yankees are up 3 games to 0. I'll stand by that - 6 or 7 game Yankee victory.

On the flip side - Astros/Cardinals should be over in 5 at the most. The Cardinals will blow out either Clemens or Oswalt and may still win that other game 3-0 or 4-2 or something. That team is loaded.

Cure yourself with baseball!

2004-10-13T13:30:00.000-07:00

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1900990

Seems like the people of Washington aren't under the spell they way MLB wants them to be. They actually want to see their area raised to a respectable level before worrying about things like a baseball park. I've managed to get a hold of a draft of the Mayor's memo in response:

"
People of the Anacostia region of Washington. I have heard you wish to have a hospital built in your neighborhood rather than a baseball stadium so your wounded and sick will no longer die en route to help. While I agree with you that dying is a very serious problem, I believe you are ignoring important facts.

First, the baseball stadium will have the very finest First Aid stations in all of the Major Leagues. Not only will there be a trained nurse at the main station (located near the "District of Collectibles" shopping area) to dispense band aids and treat mild cases of dehydration, but there will be free tubes of sun tan lotion available. Not little cups from a large dispenser, free tubes!

Second, our research shows that having a baseball stadium in your area will increase the local economy to such a degree that you will all be able to afford tanks and body armor. Based on our report, most of you will be able to purchase ones made with solid gold, though I cannot promise gold for everyone. (However our report is conservative) This level of protection will severly decrease your chances of taking a bullet to the chest. Wouldn't you rather not take a bullet at all, then be properly taken care of in the event it happens? We're treating the symptoms here, people.

Third, everyone knows baseball has magical healing properties. Remember when Babe Ruth healed that kid by hitting a home run for him? That kid grew up to be JFK if I'm not mistaken. Possibly John Lennon. Regardless, that is more exciting than immediate defibulation, don't you think?

In closing; Nah nah nah, I'm not listening to you.

Mayor Anthony Williams
"

There might be some grammatical changes before it gets to the press.

Predictions - previously delayed by god

2004-10-13T09:36:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I posted but was so rudely denied. While I hate repeating myself I'll do it this time, since noone is actually listening.

These are the same as my initial picks for the World Series so no cop out talking

ALCS
New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox.

NLCS
St. Louis Cardinals over Houston Astros

After watching the game (NYY/BOS) last night - I will only believe in a short series (4 or 5 games) if the Yankees go up 3-0. Too much firepower here.

When you're right 51% of the time...

2004-10-12T06:28:00.000-07:00

The "All-Expos Predicted" series is already out the window, but my initial projection remains possible. I don't change horses midsstream so here are my ALCS picks.

NY Yankees over Boston Red Sox:
Why? Because I'll begin to pick against the Yankees when they lose more series than they win.

St. Louis Cardinals over Houston Astros:
Forget the pitching rotation not being in the Astros favor. The Cardinals are just too good this year and will be sitting on the front porch with their feet propped up waiting for the ALCS winner.

Vacation - Thought

2004-10-07T11:24:00.000-07:00

I'll be away, loyal reader(s) so one final thought on the playoffs.

To win the playoffs it is FAR more important to be lucky than good. Having a couple of your guys being hot at the right time. Catching a starters bad night. They are all good teams so just a break or two here and there often decides games.

For all those bashing the Braves for not winning enough WS. I'd say the first one is worth an infinite number of NL East titles. You've got to win one. But 2, 3, 4? I'd say winning 13 NL East titles, is more impressive than 2 or maybe even 3 WS. So after the first WS, I'd say each is worth about 5 or so division titles.

To win it all you need to be lucky and good. Good to make it to the playoffs, lucky to win an arbitrary number of games in an elimination series.

Oh - and a couple of strong starters helps.

Playoffs - Day 2

2004-10-07T06:50:00.000-07:00

thoughts

HOU/ATL : You gave up a HR to Brad Ausmus. You should have just called it a game then. I would have taken Mike Hampton over Ausmus in a bet over who would homer in this series.

The Braves' biggest mistake was not jumping on Clemens early. Clemens is usually a little shaky in big games and he was real shaky yesterday. A couple a key hits and the game changes. They didn't get it. They won't get swept though and if they beat Oswalt they are still in control of the series.

Brad Ausmus. You think he closed his eyes before he swung?

MIN/NY: Gardenhire has to know that Nathan might not make it through the third inning and has to be ready to pull him if he starts to waver. I fully support putting him back out there in the 12th. I would have probably even kept him in after that walk to Cairo (I wasn't convinced he was done until the first pitch to Jeter). After the Jeter walk and 8 straight balls though, he would have been gone. The worry of a third walk alone would have done it. A third walk and you'd have to pull him. Then you'd have a rookie facing Sheffield with the bases loaded and no margin for error.

And what was that throw from Jones? That was Barry Bonds-esque (of course Bonds was trying to gun out the speedy Sid Bream so you can understand why he failed) . Just a 12th inning breakdown by the Twins.

Of course it only could have happened thanks to Gordon and Rivera having their own mini-breakdown. I'd be worried about Gordon. He seems tired. Rivera? This is a classic rally against Rivera. Put the bat on the ball and hope, after the bat shatters, that your bloop falls in. That was hit number one. Do that enough times and he's forced to go for the K - not his strongest point. Then you might be able to get a solid hit off him. That was Koskie's shot. It's not a great strategy but it's all you got.

ANA/BOS: Neither pitcher had it, AND they were being totally squeezed by the umpire. An umpire should never be the focus of the game. Just set a good strike zone and be consistent. This ump did the latter, but his strike zone was too too small. I saw a lot of good pitches get called for balls.

Of course Angels fans will complain about the bad pitch called for a strike to Glaus in the 8th but, to me, the most important at bat, was Garrett Anderson. So man on first and noone out. Timlin strikes out Guerrero. That hurts but you had to think it was a possibility. It's painful to watch him limp around the outfield, he's in a slump, and on his best day he'll still swing through quite a few pitches. But Garrett Anderson looked like he didn't even want to be up at bat. This is a team leader - a guy you count on - and he had one of the worst clutch at bats I've seen in a while (well there was that Klesko 3-pitch, all called, strikeout but that's Ryan Klesko. He probably blamed the fences in San Diego). It totally killed the crowd, who were, after Vlad, just looking for a ball in play. What happened after that is inconsequential in my eyes.

Playoff update - World Series Atlanta vs. Minnesota??

2004-10-05T21:52:00.000-07:00

I was fortunate enough to watch/listen to all three games yesterday and here are my impressions:

LAvSTL : Nothing no one else hasn't said. The Cardinals' hitting is too much for LA's mediocre starting pitching. They should get 4+ runs every game. LA will get a coauple runs every game, but not more than that. They simply don't have the punch. LaRussa will also be quick to get into his bullpen if it means making this a quick series. The Dodgers might win one. Maybe. (but I wouldn't count on it)

BOS/ANA : Anaheim seemed strangely on edge yesterday. I guess facing a pitcher as "epic" as Schilling (and a team that has swept you recently) can do that to you. However, you can't simply say they beat themselves. Give the Red Sox credit for playing well in a hostile environment. The Angels managed to get good cuts in on Schilling and should get better ones on Pedro. I think Colon should be big (also he should pitch well). Boston's offense, as impressive as it is, has been known just to disappear at times. I still think this is going 4 or 5 and I'm not ready to give up on the Angels just yet.

MIN/NY: Nothing annoys me more than when someone jumps at the wall and the sports reporters/announcers say he robbed a home run when obviously he didn't. Happens all the time. Now it didn't happen here, but we have equivalents. There has been lots of talk of btoh Santana pitching "big" when he needed it and the Twins great fielding. I didn't see either. A pitcher pitching big will get strike outs /pop ups / weak grounders (Schill had a couple innings like that). Santana got hit all over the place and couldn't keep the Yankees from putting the ball in play. The Yanks just hit 'em where they were. The Minnesota D also simply made plays they should make. None of those double plays involved a abnormally difficult situation. Only Hunter's catch at the wall was beyond what you'd see an average player do. This being said, the Twins got the win they HAD to get. If the Yanks hit like they did tonight, they should pound Radke tomorrow. Once the teams head into the Homer-dome though anything can go. Makes it more of a toss-up but I won't back out on my picks just yet.

BY the way - based on how teams fared against Montreal the World Series should be Atlanta vs Minnesota (the only AL team to play Montreal) .

Playoff Picks

2004-10-05T13:06:00.000-07:00

I know you were all waiting for this (all three or four of you that read this)

NL
Braves over Astros - There' a reason the Braves always win. They're always good. The Astros did make the playoffs with an incredible run but that's it. Teams that make great comebacks helped by teams collapsing never win it all. Did the Mariners win in '95? The Impossible Dream Red Sox? The Miracle Mets? Skip that last one.

Cardinals over Dodgers - Man that Dodger team is weak. Weaver, Perez, and Lima in the playoffs? I love Lima Time but no way. The Cardinal lineup is just too strong and their pitching has been so consistent I can't believe it will suddenly blow-up now.

AL
Yankees over Twins - The Twins could win, but never bet against the Yankees in the playoffs. You'll make more money than you'll lose. The Twins are a next-year team. As they cast off the last of their unecessaries (Guzman, Koskie) and become a hitting machine with a killer #1 starter.

Angels over Red Sox - Everybody thinks the Sox will win. Therefore they won't. There is something about this Angels team - a supposed best team in the league who won against division rivals when it counted. The Red Sox didn't. A loss for Schilling in game 1 and the wheels come off.

Division Series
Cardinals over Braves - Did I mention that lineup was strong? Looking at today's score, I'll up that to "Killer".

Yankees over Angels - Don't bet against the Yankees. The Yanks always seem to beat a team given a second chance - this is revenge for 2 years ago.

World Series
Yankees over Cardinals - for the wagering public. Cardinals will face in the AL team (unless it's the Twins) a team with almost as good a lineup as their own. They'll be completely discombobulated. I think this would be a great series though.

Season over

2004-10-04T06:33:00.000-07:00

on an Endy Chavez groundout to second. The 'Spos didn't take the last game, but they did take 2 out of 3 from the Mets. The second game in the series showcasing the best of the Expos Hernandez pitching well, Wilkerson hitting a bomb. Not much to say.

A win would have gotten the Expos "Kings of Cananda" but in the end the Jays win on a technicality (playing 161 games) 67-94 to 67-95. The Expos really tanked the end of the year going 17-29 since mid August including a 6-14 stretch. They managed to catch absolutely noone finishing only ahead of Seattle, KC and Arizona.

Later I'll go through what to expect of this team next year and who, in my mind, should be getting the playing time.

Ain't going out like that, we're ain't going out like that

2004-10-02T08:07:00.000-07:00

Now this is Expos baseball. 3 innings of 1 hit ball by the relief core (including Rauch - trying to impress where he can) 11 hits by the team but only one extra base hit (Terrmel Sledge's double)
and a 4-2 win. Scott Downs, who has pitched admirably since being called up, does so again and gets the win. I tell you there will be real competetion for the 4th and 5th starter next year (Behind I imagine Hernandez, Patterson, and a healed Armas). The only sad part is that Izturis might be too injured to play any more games. We get to see another minor league shortstop (Landaberia) but Izturis is most likely the wave of the future.

Sweep the Mets!

Lies, damned lies, and ESPN

2004-10-01T14:07:00.000-07:00

Well, not just ESPN, but every news outlet. Generally despite the serious concerns about moving the franchise (see below) there are only two types of reports about the move to Washington

Report A: "YEAH! Baseball is back in Washington!"
Report B: "It's a shame they screwed the Expos...but on the bright side YEAH! Baseball is back in Washington!"

I would say that it's going to happen, because I believe in the power of money and the allure of professional sports. But it seems at least slightly precarious and announcing that DC has won and has gotten baseball, at this juncture, is almost a flat out lie.

Don't rent the U-hauls just yet

2004-09-30T07:07:00.000-07:00

It's a sad day in Exposworld. The thought of no more Youppi hits one like a hammer, or more appropriately, like a Vlad Guerrero swing. It makes one do crazy things, such as try to figure out why this couldn't happen.

There have been press conferences and talk on SportsCenter and in newspapers, it must be fated right ? Well...

Here is my view. From the very beginning of the moving saga MLB wanted the team to be in DC. They may have flirted with other girls at the dance, but DC has the largest population, the wealthiest population, the history, and the cache of being the nation's capitol. The question really never was Vegas vs DC, or Portland or Norfolk or Billings. These were back-up plans in case, I don't know, Washington DC was lifted up into space by aliens. The battle was only between Northern Virginia and DC. In their minds, DC vs DC. They would rather officially be in DC, but if NoVA made them a sweetheart deal, MLB would "suck it up" and move there.

A funny thing happened on the way to the Forum with Mark-Linn Baker, though. Virginia could not support the certain bond requirements that were deemed necessary to build the park (boring stuff about "moral obligation" and bond ratings, basically all you need to know is the sweetheart deal became an impossibility) . It became all DC, all the time. But things weren't happening in the manner that they wanted. The government was iffy on financing the stadium, Angelos wasn't being cooperative in any manner. I believe they finally got fed up waiting and agreed to move the team to Washington with the hopes that everything would work out in the end. Stupid and short-sighted? Sure, but tell me when MLB hasn't been with the Expos

There are four conditions that need to be met for the Expos to move smoothly
1) Owners have to be found
2) A stadium has to be funded and the land purchased
3) Any Expos lawsuits have to be dealt with
4) Angelos has to be dealt with so he won't sue

#1 is the easiest for MLB. There are always rich people that want into the sports business. Rich boys and their rich toys. Even if there wasn't, or they couldn't get the price they wanted for the team, MLB could own it until it found the right buyer. I don't think they want to (because they'd actually have to support the DC team - unlike the Expos) but they aren't going to let a little thing like "no owners" stand in their way of moving the team.

#4 is harder but all it is is money. Eventually the MLB will throw enough money at Angelos to shut him up. It's not a question of "if", just of "how much".

#3 could be trickier. If the case against Loria does not get dismissed (which it shouldn't, Loria is one shady bastard) then the MLB/Loria will have to take the same approach to the plaintiffs as to Angelos. However, Angelos just wants financial security so money will work for him. There is no question here. The plaintiffs could want something entirely different and just paying them off may not be as successful a solution. Of course, a few million is a siren song to the vast majority of people. I'd expect this to eventually go away (costing MLB a pretty penny in the process)

#2 is the hardest part. The governing body of DC seems to have very strong opposition to using public funding to pay for the stadium. Always have. But MLB has increased the pressure. Now instead of going the "You approve and maybe we'll build there" route, we've gone to a new level. The "We're moving here. All you have to do is sign here and it's yours" path. It's much more enticing, but it's far from the position of power sports leagues usually have. The opposition has numerous studies over the past 15 years proving that sports venues do not help the local economy as much as it costs. That hasn't stopped any stadium yet, but it's getting closer (see No VA) and eventually it will. Will DC be where the public draws the line in the sand?

Also there is some issue with the land they want to use for the part - considering its owned by 20+ Private parties and the goal is to have it seized for public use - a situation with it's own set of massive legal problems.

It's not clear to me that this will go down smoothly - I think it's very likely that the Expos play in RFK next year with no guarantees of a new park and hence no owners - just to increase the pressure on the DC government. Then it could begin looking for a new sweetheart deal somewhere else - making DC just a stop over on this crazy train the Expos are riding.

One day, Billings. One day.

2004-09-29T06:25:00.000-07:00

It looks like the move to DC is done. Disappointing? Sure. What strikes me as the most wrong is that they decided to move the Expos before selling the team. If they had sold it and the new owner said "Hmmm, I don't like French, and I don't like hockey. Let's move to D.C." it would have at least been his decision. But now whoever buys it is forced to be in DC for a while. Remember that baseball failed in D.C. twice where as it was more or less put to sleep in Montreal, like a healthy dog that noone wants.

What a mess this was. With the Lurie sale and all that took place - I think it really could have been one of those take to Congress complaints, except that it's Canada and they can't complain. Hey, does baseball have an anti-trust exemption in Canada too? Anyone know this? I'm sure if they complained they'd just pull Toronto away as well, but then maybe it could lead to a sports league war and eventually a hockey league with Edmonton, Quebec City, and Winnipeg back in it. Sweet.

Minaya is leaving too. Eh. The Expos were such a strange situation that it was hard to tell if he was good or not. I wouldn't want to go to the Mets but you can't blame Omar for wanting job security with a new owner coming in on this team. I wish him well.

In baseball news, the Expos offense has been put inside a magic box, spun around, then opened to reveal no offense. They managed 3 hits last night wasting another acceptable outing from Ohka, et al. And by "they" I mean Juan Rivera. The Greater Kim is on the mound tonight and has been pitching well lately. Let's not get swept, ok?

Malaise

2004-09-28T06:07:00.000-07:00

With a DC move now appearing imminent the team is sliding into home. Too bad the catcher is there waiting with the ball.

Patterson pitched well enough and the bullpen, which has been pretty average the past month, performed fine, but for the third straight game not enough offense. Here are some slumping Expos (at least last 3 games)

Wilkerson 0-8
Batista 3-22
Rivera 4-23
Church 0-9
Schneider 3-15
Chavez 3-23

For Batista, Rivera, Schneider, and Chavez - pretty much starters - that's about 5-6 games worth of 13-83 or .157 batting. Toss in the below .200 pitcher's spot in the order and that's an anemic half of a line-up.

Stealing Signs in the Minor Leagues

2004-09-27T13:27:00.000-07:00

The Expos aren't only going through Major League changes, but minor league changes as well, changes that could clue us in that the DC move is pretty close to done.

The Expos "High-A" affiliate is now the Potomac Cannons in the Carolina League. How does one get to Potomac? Take a boat, because it's a river. But it's a river located in...wait for it...Northern Virginia! So just another sign that the Expos in DC is going to happen, whether anyone actually wants them there or not.

History note: The Army of the Potomac was the Union's Army in this area in the Civil War. The Confederacy's army was The Army of Northern Virginia. The Union tended to name things after waterways, the Confederacy after towns. So you have multiple battle names. Bull Run = Manassas. Sharpsburg=Antietam. You learn something new everyday at exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com

This move left the Expos former "High-A" team (Brevard County) without a team. Begin the music as the major league mascots walks around a circle of chairs.

Expos move from Brevard County (FL) to Potomac
Reds move from Potomac to Sarasota
Red Sox move from Sarasota to Wilmington (DE)
Royals move from Wilmington (DE) to High Desert (Adelanto CA)
Brewers move from High Desert (Adelanto CA) to Brevard County (FL)

You can't tell your minor league affiliations without a scorecard.

Much more simple was the Expos Triple A change. Nolan Ryan's group bought the Edmonton Trappers and moved them to Round Rock, Texas (outside of Austin). The Astros, killing grandmothers carrying kittens who get in the way of making up to Nolan Ryan after letting him go to the Rangers, changed affiliation to this team. The Expos took over Houston's affiliation (New Orleans Zephyrs)

Go Zephyrs! Go Cannons!

A few walks, wasted

2004-09-27T09:50:00.000-07:00

Tough weekend for the 'Spos as the pitchers showed up but the batters went to DC early to scout out some new homes and learn about the area (Where are the good schools? Are they all in Denver? Where does Tony Kornheiser live?) Well that's not exactly true - on Friday they smacked the ball around pretty well - so they must have taken early Sat morning flights.

Kim, Downs and Livan, all pitched at least into the 8th inning, all gave up 2 runs or less, and the Expos end up with only one victory (the alluded to 8-1 pasting of the Phils). In the Saturday/Sunday combo only one hitter had a multiple hit game (Sledge) and only one other hitter had a multiple hit "combo" (Izturis).

This is a shame, considering how the biggest problem the Expos have had in the second half has been starting pitching.

No real info to speak of which will happen if you aren't in, and never have been in, a pennant race this year. Robinson hopes to be back next year. I can see it going either way. The guy is not a noticably bad coach and may actually be a good coach (though I think he may suffer from a little of the "veterans-only" Dusty Baker mentality). He has a name with baseball fans (though not nearly as strong as it should be given how great a player he was and all he's done for baseball since then. More than his Mays, Aaron, Mantle contemporaries). But new ownership tends to want their own guys in there. While I won't cry if he's not the coach of the Expos next year, I do hope he gets a chance to coach somewhere next year.

What if Wilkerson threw a party and nobody came?

2004-09-24T11:03:00.000-07:00

What a disappointing couple of games. Chances of crawling out of last place are severely diminished now. At least they can add to the fire Larry Bowa fire and maybe help the Phillies drop below .500.

Glavine (who will reach 300 by the way) shut down all the Expos except for Wilkerson who hit two bombs to tie Batista for the team lead. Wilkerson though if probably the second most important position player on the team behind Vidro. You want a prime example of why the normal stats of batting average, HR, and RBI are overrated?

Wilkerson .256 31HR 62RBI
Batista .245 31HR 107RBI

Batista is probably the favorite here. But looking beyond that

Wilkerson .500Slugging .370 OBP
Batista .462Slugging .275 OBP

Wilkerson hits with as much power and gets on base far more often. The lack of RBI is completely because he bats first. And he's a genuine good guy

District of Carroll

2004-09-23T14:16:00.000-07:00

Looks like the Expos will be in DC/No. Va next year

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1887083

Shame. I'd rather they be in Norfolk (well actually I'd really rather they'd be in Montreal (well actually I'd really really rather they be in Billings ))

Hyde Offense

2004-09-23T07:17:00.000-07:00

Ah! The Expos just lost the most important game in the history of sport! Mets pull 2 games ahead! Toronto ties the Expos for the Kings of Canada! It's completely unsettling.

Jeckyll Patterson showed up last night. 1 BB 7 K in 6 innings. A bit to many hits (7) but that seems to hardly matter when he manages to keep the free passes down. Unfortunately the Expos had a 1st half offensive flashback - 6 hits and 2 runs. (1 of course being a Batista HR - I haven't watched an Expos game in a while but I imagine Batista just swinging as hard as he can at every pitch, knocking some out of the park, missing and spinning around wildly like a cartoon on the others).

Since I'm taking a break from the infield/outfield discussions, let me tell you - it must be nice to be Brian Schneider. He's a completely average player. Nothing special, but not awful either. You'd probably like to replace him with a bit more offense but as far as I can tell he is getting no real pressure for his job. He gets all the time in the world to develop. And I guess since catchers are so scarce a .260 15 HR catcher can pretty much hold on to his job. Kids, if you want to play ball either learn to catch or learn to pitch left-handed. It's like being the red-headed wacky friend on a sitcom. It's always in demand

Step Right Up and Beat the Mets

2004-09-22T08:56:00.000-07:00

The Expos need a win from "Jeckyll and Hyde" Patterson tonight. Why?

1) A win tonight could put the Expos in a tie with the Mets for 4th place in the NL East.
2) The Blue Jays are just a game behind and could retake the Kings of Canada crown.
3) They are 32-31 since the break. They need a win to help solidify their post All-Star game +.500 record.

This is the most important game EVER.

There are a bunch of teams with 63-64 wins. The Expos most probably will finish somewhere between 22nd and 27th in the league. Let's make it 22.

The Rock (Tim Raines not Duane Johnson) is back as a coach. If the Andre "Hawk" Dawson could come back not only would the Expos have the corner on 80's Montreal nostalgia, but they could have a monopoly on four-letter baseball nicknames ending in "K"

Livan Large!

2004-09-22T08:25:00.000-07:00

Ha! I got a million of them. How about "Livan Dead Girl"? What? No White Zombie / Montreal Expos fans out there reading this blog?

Livan continued his strict adherence to the rules of Livan (great/ok/Braves) and was great against the weak NY Mets. Not as dominating in Ks as he can be but a good performance.

As for the lineup...things are getting interesting. As you probably were deafened by the buzz over the weekend, it is true; Alex Gonzalez did in fact get traded to the Padres. A sweet deal for the Expos regardless of what it got them in return. I think maybe they got cholera, but still sweet deal. He wasn't producing here, he wasn't staying here, so now, you don't even have to think about it. This should have opened up a spot for Harris BUT the rules have changed, things have gotten weird.

In the infield, it's impossible right now to keep Batista out of the lineup. I've said before - it's hard to keep him out anyway, being the only real power threat in the middle of the lineup. But when he's actually pounding the ball at a + .500 OBP with 7 HR in the last 10 games you've got to stay with that. (though the .052 OBP with 0 HR he was weighing the team down with the 10 games before this is why you got to cut him free at the end of the year 30HR/100 RBI regardless).

But that should be ok. We can still have our 2b - Harris, SS- Izturis like I want right? Unfortunately not. Izturis is slumping bad (not unexpected for a rookie in your first long stint in the majors, especially a rookie often "protected" by the pitcher) and Jamey Carroll is hot. So F-Rob is trying to split time between all these players. He actually gave half-games to both Harris and Izturis while Carroll switched positions. I don't go along with this. I think it's real important to get constant at bats 3-5 a game. I'd rather see two starting games, two off, than 1-2 at bats every game. The real issue here is Jamey Carroll, while an Ecksteinien fan favorite, is 30 years old. The younger players should be getting the at bats.

In the outfield things are just as convoluted. Rivera has played his way into a everyday starting gig. There is no denying this. He was always thought to have talent and maybe it's finally coming through. So instead of three outfield positions to work with we got two. But F-Rob really likes what he sees in Sledge even saying he thinks he'll be an everyday player next year. So that means one outfield position to try out three guys (Endy, Church, and Val). I'm afraid neither Church nor Val will get enough playing time to prove themselves. (Endy has had much of the year to impress)

I went home

2004-09-20T20:35:00.000-07:00

Hence the lack of posts. In the meantime the Expos haven't played all that well (3-3, I think) but they did sweep the Wed double header of the Marlins, which in my mind knocked the Marlins officially out of the WC race.

In other probable news: A quick scan of the box score seemed to indicate Church, Val, and Harris acquitting themelves quite nicely during double header starts. Then immediately got reduced back to PH status. But I'm in a better mood now, so no yelling. Just a statement of facts.

I'll be back tomorrow with game recaps

Expos ignored again

2004-09-15T06:45:00.000-07:00

Check out ESPN where Tomo Ohka pitches both ends of Montreal's double header today. Why is this historic feat going unrecognized? I tell you why. Expos bias. It's rampant.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/schedules

But seriously folks, today Jeckyll and Hyde Patterson starts game 1. This is the Expos last chance to truly impact the Wild Card race so play some good ball.

Sledge is day-to-day which means Church or Val will have to start one of the games. You'd expect B-Har to be in a game, too. Let's see what happens when these kids get 4 at bats.

Another loss

2004-09-14T14:01:00.000-07:00

Let's get this straight. The Expos are not a good team. They are a team constructed with a shoe string budget and no real direction thanks to MLB. It should be obvious to anyone that they are not playing to win right now. There is no benefit to finishing the season if they won all the remaining games. It simply does not matter. They can't even reach .500.

With this in mind it should be obvious that this time should be used to evaluate minor league talent, to see who, if anyone will be useful next year. Since August 21st, the Expos have called up 4 position players and only 1, Macier Izturis, is getting signifcant playing time. But even he is getting this time at a position he will most likely not be playing next year. This is simply unacceptable.

I know they'd like to evaluate Endy Chavez, Termell Sledge, and Juan Rivera more, as they are as much prospects as anyone that was called up. But they have played 130+ games, conclusions can be drawn. Their conitnued everyday play basically tells me they have no interest in seeing whether Ryan Church or Val Pascucci will be productive major leaguers. This is a crowded area but something can be worked out here so everyone could be playing at least half the games.

The lack of playing time for Brendan Harris is even more perplexing because he is not getting crowded out by other "young" talent. He is not playing so Tony Batista and Alex Gonzalez can get at bats. This is utterly ridiculous. Neither of these players should be on the team next year which almost guarantees Harris will be playing next year or at least seriously looked at as a starter, so why not do it now?

I'm not sure if this is Frank's decision or Omar's edict, but either way it does not fill me with hope for next year.

RTB - Expos Marlins

2004-09-14T11:24:00.000-07:00

from now on I'll just update this post

bottom first. A-Gonz almost gets the "Spos in big trouble. with Pierre at second, a groubder is hit to Batista. He catches Pierre off second but as Macier runs him to third, A-gonz stands around instead of backing up second. Yeah, you want this guy playing. Luckily Pierre kept running like a fool and got doubled up on a line drive.

Bottom Third - real ugly real fast. Downs was being hit hard and had no room for error. Unfortunately Alex Gonzalez happened. First the Marlins A-Gonz hit a HR to tie it up then The Expos A-Gonz booted the pitchers ground ball. A passed ball and hits all over the place and suddenly it's 6-1. I blame A-Gonz.

Bottom Sixth - Chipping Away. In the 4th Rivera doubled and scored on a double by somebody that I've been bashing all day. In the 6th Sledge walked, then after Rivera got out was replaced by Church (I don't know why F-Rob waited till after Rivera got out). Church scored on a Schneider double. Jack McKeon tried to argue fan interference, in part I think to give a show to the fans. That's just the kind of guy he is. Guy I'm bashing struck out to strand Schneider. 6-3.

Interesting fact 988 and 44. What are these numbers? The first is the number of at bats for Batista and Chavez combined the second is the number of walks.

Top Seventh - BAT-ista! Oh I don't love the guy, but as I said before there is a reason he's in the lineup. He'll swing hard at everything and some of those hits will go over the fence in key moments. This time it was a 3-run shot with 2 out to tie the game up 6-6! You just kind of had a feeling this would happen. Church....just gets under one following him.

Cubs fans at the game are cheering as loud as they can for the Expos. With so few people in the stands you can really hear them.

Bottom Seventh - Easy Come... Ayala who had been averaging just over 1 walk per 9 innings, gives up two in the same one, sandwiched around a couple hits and followed by a sac fly and there you go. 8-6, bad guys. You can't give up free passes. You just can't. If they hit you, they hit you but walks are the worst.

Top Ninth....here we go. Last chance

...I figured if someone could get on Wilkerson might be able to drive one out. Izzy and Einar Diaz, the man with the name that just screams "old catcher" couldn't do it. Though now we've got a Wilky walk and an Endy hit. Batista up - two on, two out again....

Batista walks, now Church is up and thankfully Robinson has gotten him a lot of at bats so he's ready for this....oh wait.

real time blog -p1

2004-09-14T11:11:00.000-07:00

I'll be blogging this game as it goes. Sledge just knocked in Batista (I was a little late getting to the radio) 1-0 Spos. Rivera up. He goes down

That was disappointing in many ways

2004-09-14T09:32:00.000-07:00

Sun-Woo Kim (who now officially must be the Greater Kim, since Byung is not even being brought back up to the majors by the Sawx) pitches a gem. Then it gets ugly. 4 errors in a half inning? I think it's safe to say that's not good team play. I'd like to blame pitchers but I can't when they have that behind them to deal with.

Macier playing unnaturally at 2nd base, so Alex Gonzalez can what? I mean really, there no pressing reason to play this guy. Batista, I at least understand as he's becoming a Rob Deer like character, always threatening long ball, usually walking back to the dugout. For a team lacking in power as the 'Spos you can sort of justify that bat. But A-Gonz?

And Chavez/Sledge playing all the time over the call-ups? Do we need to see how many ways Chavez can hit a single? How do you expect Church or Val to get on track playing 1 out of every 4 games? How can you expect B-Har to do well if he's limited to a pinch hitter every other game?

This is very frustrating to me. You make call-ups and only Izzy is playing with any regularity. I thought September in Montreal would be all about the youth. Seeing what they got in order to try to be respectable next year. Instead it's been a retread of the same lousy offense they had all year. What is that going to do for the organization? Sorry.

Fish with Big Shoulders

2004-09-13T10:16:00.000-07:00

Tonight - The Montreal @ Florida in Chicago. Crazy man.

On a side note - doesn't anyone notice that Ivan just keeps going West and West and West? I swear it's going to be minutes from ramming into Houston and the projected path will still have it hitting the panhandle of Florida.

Maybe Ivan is just following the Marlins. They lost Pudge. They need a new Ivan)

Cleaning out the Spos

2004-09-13T10:08:00.000-07:00

An Atlanta sweep. Considering how horrible Montreal has played Atlanta this year, this shouldn't be all that surprising. We almost won two of the games (well really one - I never felt in the first game) but you know, horseshoes and handgrenades.

Game 1 -
Jeckyll Patterson shows up and pitches a good enough game, but the offense is offensive. No timely hits and the team falls 4-3

Game 2 -
Livan shakes off the strange great performance last time against the Braves and goes out and proves once again the old adage : Livan has three types of starts, great against bad teams, acceptable against good teams, and horrible against the Braves. I think I read he's 0-10 in his last 13 starts against this team. That's owning somebody. Oh yeah offense is still offensive.

Game 3 - Expos show heart - coming back from well down to tie it, 3 runs in the ninth off of Smoltz, but not good enough. Bullpen not firing this game as almost every reliever gave up a run.

F-Rob didn't start Harris, Church (admittedly struggling) or Izzy for the last two games. The future Frank. Stop living in the now.

Day and Biddle - out for the year. not crying about it.

"Scattered", Smothered and Covered

2004-09-09T13:25:00.000-07:00

"Scattered" the Cubbies hits :

Cubbies 5 hits + 1 walk = 0 runs
Expos 6 hits + 1 walk = 5 runs

It's called timely hitting, or luck. Up until the 8th neither team had more than one baserunner in an inning. The Expos got a double, sac, and sac fly to score the only run so far. Then two singles, two errors, and a blast got the Expos 5 runs and put the game out of reach.

Smothered : The Cubbies playoff lead. The Expos were bound to spoil someone's season, what with their .500 play and there constant exposure to playoff teams. Taking 2 out of 3 from the Cubs (3 out of 4 overall) has created a logjam on top of the Wild Card lead. Will they knock out Florida in the next few weeks?

Covered: The Expos young-uns, by me. B-Har had his first at bats as an Expos and got a hit. Macier is continuing to impress. Scott Downs pitched a gem. Could this be the surprise team of 2005? Maybe... if they get an MVP bat and a CY Young Arm. Pedro back in Montreal? Larry Walker? Ha! At least they'll be attractive to any buyer with the low payroll.

Kings of Canada...and Pain

2004-09-08T13:51:00.000-07:00

Or is it Premiers? Czars? Tsars? Archdukes? Last night's win once again propelled the 'spos to the top of the CLB (Canadian League Baseball - logo is a stylized silhouette of Darrin Fletcher) Standings. I figured it would be a good time to reacquaint ourselves with the Expos against the World standings.

When we last looked at the overall standings (August 23rd for all you that don't have Exposbaseball DOT blogspot DOT com memorized.) The Expos were looking at catching the Colorado Rockies.

Little has changed below the Expos. But above the Expos everyone has come down a little. It is not inconcievable for the Expos to look at a 24th place finish. Sure that doesn't sound like much but it is out of the lower 25% (or if you prefer quartile). You can also say you were in the first couple dozen teams. Sounds nice, doesn't it?

NY Mets 60-77 .438
Milwaukee 60-77 .438
Colorado 60-77 .438
Tampa Bay 59-77 .434
Montreal 58-80 .420
Toronto 57-81 .413
Seattle 51-86 .372
Kansas City 49-88 .358
Arizona 42-96 .304

So go 'Spos! Get us a run and into the mid, rather than lower 20s.

Doing it and doing it and doing it at an acceptable level

2004-09-08T13:39:00.000-07:00

The Cubs announcers over the weekend commented on how the Expos were one of those teams getting beat up by the contenders. Ha! HA! Take that, for not paying attention to the actual outcomes of the games.

Last night was another extra innings thriller. It was even one of those both teams score in the same extra inning games, which I love. The 'spos came out on top. Why? Tucker and Cordero and some timely hitting.

Harris is finally up. Hopefully we'll get to see the potential 2005 starting 3B in the field soon.

A tough road ahead

2004-09-07T06:32:00.000-07:00

The Expos has been beaten up by some good teams recently - generally losing 2 games for every one they win in this stretch versus playoff teams. They lost 2 of 3 to Atlanta, with Downs performing below par (but not horrible) and Patterson performing horrible. Then Armas got knocked around by the Cubbies yestreday. In the three losses they got outscored 25-2. Not good.

The pain doesn't end there. With something like 10 games in 10 days still left in this gauntlet. For a team already complaining about being tired and injured that is not a faovrable schedule.

Any good news from this week? Livan did pitch strong against the Braves. His first good outing against them for the year. Batista is slumping so perhaps, just maybe, we'll get a look at Harris in this last month.

Fantastic Four (Five) update

2004-09-03T06:30:00.000-07:00

You want to know why the Expos are over .500 in the second half? Well I'd say it was their bullpen (I'd be wrong but I'd still say it) Here is an update on the 2nd half stats of the Fantastic Four plus newcomer Joey Eischen

Ayala__ 31.2 IP 1.09 WHIP 3 HR 07.5 K/9IP
Cordero 21.0 IP 1.52 WHIP 4 HR 11.6 K/9IP
Horgan_ 20.0 IP 1.30 WHIP 0 HR 05.9 K/9IP
Tucker_ 25.0 IP 1.32 WHIP 1 HR 05.8 K/9IP
Eischen 12.1 IP 1.23 WHIP 1 HR 08.2 K/9IP

overall
109 IP WHIP 1.28 9 HR 7.65 K/9IP 1.76 ERA

That's some good pitching

(the real reason they are much better in the second half is that the hitting has gone from BY FAR worst in the NL and the Majors - to middle of the pack in the NL. BUt I'm not going to give a lot of credit for a team not batting horribly anymore)

MVP in both leagues but in the dugout...

2004-09-02T06:47:00.000-07:00

Something has been bothering me about the Expos but I didn't want to voice it until I had a good example. Well last night provided me one.

Basically I'm not sure F-Rob is a good coach. I don't think he's a bad one, but I just can't tell if he is the type that will elevate a team. Most people would say he deserves a shot with the team once it moves, just for sticking it out in such a bad situation, as it is for the Expos right now. I would say that a new owner should be more concerned with getting out a winning team ASAP, then giving a former baseball player, who I'm sure is fine in terms of status of living, a reward for what? Not quitting? Taking a bullet for MLB? I'm not saying I wouldn't keep him on. F-Rob brings a lot to the table on the non-managerial side. I'm just saying if Lou Pinella suddenly remembers he makes his home off Hudson and not Tampa Bay, I wouldn't dismiss him. (Too many hurricanes down there anyway Lou)

Oh? You want to know the play that made me bring this up? Ok last night (great game for the 'Spos pitching and when Kerry Wood is on - there is not much you can do hitting wise) it's tied 0-0 in the bottom of the 8th. With one out, super rookie SS Macier Izturis triples down the right field line. The next batter is the pitcher and all you need is a good groundball or flyball (i.e. contact) to drive in the speedy Izturis. Who do you pinch hit to face Righthanded Fireballer Kerry Wood?

Player AB K
1 23 10
2 163 14
3 105 8
4 17 6

I would rank them 2/3, 1/4. Looks like both 1 and 4 are overmatched rookies. While either 2 or 3 would be part-timers with pretty good contact. No real idea on how to rank the individual groups of two. Now what if I gave you the info that only #4 was a lefty and #3 was your only back-up catcher? You'd probably do as I did and rank them 2, 3, 4, 1 (or mayber 2,4,3,1 if you really value your back-up catcher). You can probably guess where I'm going with this.

Robinson bats #4 (Val Pascucci) who promptly strikes out. The rest sit on the bench. It is quite likely that F-Rob REALLY values his back-up C (#3 Einar Diaz), and that he though new call-up Pascucci may have a better shot than #4 Ryan Church, who has been struggling recently and ahs been sick. But why not bat #2, fan favorite Jamey Carroll? To punctuate the error he even comes in, in the 11th and doubles and scores.

So let's recap given a scoreless game in the bottom of the eighth with a strikeout righthander on the mound and all you need is good contact to score the go ahead run from third, F-Rob puts in a newly called up righthanded rookie batter who strikes out at a greater rate than anyone on the team that doesn't pitch for a living (but not all of them) . I call that questionable.

B-Har should be up on the 6th once the Trappers season is over, but we'll see. A lot of people are coming off the DL and the Expos need arms more than bats.

Livan on the Edge...god I suck

2004-09-01T10:12:00.000-07:00

That's right. Lame pun in the title of my post. It's like I'm an actual real-life internet type person!

Livan was gold last night. Probably to make up for the last time when he was rocked against a non Brave team. This evens it out to coexist with my GREAT - GOOD - BRAVES theory.

Wilkerson hits another out and Boras just knocked his asking price up another cool mill.

Macier hit his first HR off prior really turning on, what looked like to me, an inside fastball. Congrats.

Tonight Armas goes out for his usual 2.1 innings of work. Why will we go out early tonight?

- Pregame fight with fan who calls him Jr.

- Fever contracted from rare mee-mee fly found only in puerto rican jungles.

- Youppi runs him over with a 4 wheeler for outing him.

- Late coming back in game after napping with F-Rob between innings

- Decision made on where team will be next year. Dies of shock on mound hearing news.

Alls well that ends well...dammit!

2004-08-31T12:48:00.000-07:00

Since I last sat down and "rapped" with you kids, the Expos have begun the long day's journey into night and it's only slightly more enjoyable than that play.

After an effective emergency performance by Scott Downs lead to an initial victory against the Padres, The Expos have had three straight dismal outings by Patterson (it is an even start, I guess), Biddle (it is a start, I guess) and the Lesser Kim. This team had no depth at starting pitching before Armas became the game of Operation, now they are just throwing people out there hoping to get 5 innings out of them so the bullpen (which by the way is still doing a pretty good job) can slam down the win.

F-Rob, when he's not nodding off, is pratically begging for any arms he can get for the last month. Since this year they can actually call-up people from the minors (Don't get me started how ridiculous that was) he'll get them. Unfortunately, as I've said before, it's an unimpressive lot.

They did make some call ups. Along with Downs, they brought up Macier Izturis. That's good, but where's Brendan Harris? If he doesn't get a call on Sept 1...I'll...I'll wonder why. That's about it. This month will be all about evaluating Izturis, Church, and Harris, to see if they can play everyday, along with deciding which of Sledge and Chavez will be in the OF to start next season and which will be on the bench. Church ahs performed below what I expected but he has been sick. Izturis has played a bit better. I said I'll keep you informed statwise and I will...eventually.

Wilkerson, will be going to arbitration after the year. You mean a Boras client will be difficult to sign? Wilkerson has got everything BUT the average and will be a productive, though probably not starring, hitter for a good number of years. He should be signed to a deal, but nothing wallet busting.

On the brighter side, Sledge has been hitting well.

That's it. Oh and Wilbon comes back tomorrow to PTI. Our long National Nightmare wiil soon be over.

Yeesh

2004-08-26T22:26:00.000-07:00

I was actually home and tuned in time to see Livan smack one over the fence! Go Expos!

Then the wheels fell off.

Livan had an awful 6th. So bad I doubt he could throw a strike with Eric Gregg behind the plate. (ok I jest. Eric Gregg could turn Carl Lewis into an all-star). He walked two men in with the bases loaded then Ayala had a very Biddle like performance. Better not to dwell on it.

Majewski is up and pitched allright.

Of course after I badmouth them Rivera and Sledge have the best games. Fine then. The whole team stinks! Stinks!